February 16, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update.

Here is your latest update!

Posted: Feb 16, 2020 12:34 PM
Updated: Feb 16, 2020 1:58 PM

After some local trace amounts of snow & ice Saturday evening-night with up to 0.03" of liquid, we saw some black ice this morning. Now, the low clouds have exited very quickly!  This is leading to a mostly sunny to sunny sky!

Saturday evening, we saw a bit of light rain, then period of light dusting of snow pellets (they looked like the styrofoam bits in potting soil) then a bit more rain at this location.  Even with 36, some of the rain froze on a northeast/east driveway due to very cold ground temperatures.  This was followed by some of that afformentioned black ice (with even some freezing fog) this morning.

The melt continues with snow depth down to 1.8" & temperature 37 as of 12:30 p.m.  The viewing area as a whole is 29-38.  Coldest are Morocco with 29 & then Fowler, Kentand & Remington with 31.  Warmest is Covington with 38.

Why are Morocco, Fowler, Kentland & Remington so much cooler?

Before sunrise (behind the weak cold front), an area between Chicago & Bloomington, Illinois completely cleared & the wind went calm.  Over the snow pack, temperatures completely tanked to as low as 0 & some dense freezing fog developed.  Now, what is left of this air is over parts of Newton, Jasper & Benton counties, making it colder. 

The snow cover shows up well north of I-70 in Illinois & Indiana.  The white in eastern & southeastern Indiana to Ohio are clouds.

Showers will arrive Monday by late morning, increasing to steady rainfall by Monday evening.

Note the heavier rain in central Illinois at 6 p.m. Monday moving eastward.

Winds will be rather strong from the southeast, then south to southwest.

It looks like mostly rain, however, it would not surprise me if there is brief sleet &/or freezing rain at the onset.  The duration of any sleet &/or freezing rain would be rather brief, however.

Heaviest rainfall should occur with the frontal passage late Monday night.  Rain should exit by mid-morning Tuesday.

A few flurries/snow showers are possible after that with falling temperatures & gusty northwest winds to 35 mph at times.

Total rainfall atop frozen ground with melting snow:

Unfortunately, the warm-up will occur at night while many of your are asleep.

Temperatures will already be falling by morning.

Wednesday looks like a cold day with highs only in the 20s to 30 after teens in the morning.

It is looking like clipper moving southeastward that looked to bring us some snow Thursday may merge with large, significant storm in the southern Rockies to southern Plains.

This could make for a winter storm with strong winds & heavy snow from Colorado to Nebraska to Oklahoma.

However, we will see an Arctic front pass.  Note the very strong high pressure over the Dakotas & Minnesota behind the front!

Normally, you would really need to watch a major winter storm in the southern Rockies to southern Plains & specifically Texas for eventual impacts in our area.

In this case, the Arctic high is so strong it will shove the system waaaayyyy south.

However, with the cold going so far south, we may see ice as far south as El Paso to Dallas, accumulating snowfall in Oklahoma City & Amarillo & snow as far south as Birmingham, Alabama to Macon & Columbus, Georgia.  As storm reforms into coastal system, accumulating snowfall as the potential to occur in South & North Carolina.

Bitter cold will be on the move southward late week with that Arctic high.

It should be centered over Missouri & Oklahoma by Friday.

Numerous record lows are possible from Kansas & Oklahoma, Missouri to northwestern Texas!

Note the bitter cold here with single digits to zero possible.

Friday morning looks the coldest in our area with lows -4 to 5, even without snow pack.

If we had snowpack, -20 to -10 would be possible.

So, we should not get as cold as this past week.

Freezing line should reach parts of the Rio Grande to the Gulf Coast.

This is an issue, as the corn is already up & in the V1 stages from the pictures seen northwest & north of Brownsville, Texas.

Looks like two main rounds of rainfall February 23-27.  Some of it may be heavy.

Looks like highs will eventually reach the 50s.  The rain may end as snow around February 28.

March overall looks colder than normal with normal precipitation, but potential of above normal snowfall.

The first bout of true, warm, bright spring weather should be on-cue with the first day of spring.

Note the building warmth around March 18-19 inthe central U.S.!

After a rather cold March, this spurt of warmth will push the temperature anomalies above normal for a period after March 20.

April continues to trend with above normal rainfall.

Trend is for a bit wetter than normal spring overall (March-April-May).  Worst is southeast of us though.

Trend continues to be for overall drier than normal summer (June-July-August overall).

Trend continues for warmer than normal summer.

Biggest anomalies are in July in our hottest time of year as hot Texas ridge expands northeastward.

Trend is for a dry, unusually warm Fall 2020.

Temps anomalies:

Rainfall anomalies (of course a couple of hurricanes could alter this, but the overall upper pattern is drier than normal):

West Lafayette
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 59°
Kokomo
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 54°
Rensselaer
Clear
57° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 57°
Fowler
Clear
57° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 57°
Williamsport
Clear
60° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 60°
Crawfordsville
Clear
57° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 57°
Frankfort
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 59°
Delphi
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 56°
Monticello
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 56°
Logansport
Clear
55° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 55°
Dry Weekend with Coldest Weather of the Fall So Far on Sunday Night
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