February 15, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snow ahead with temperatures below normal.

Posted: Feb. 15, 2019 5:31 PM
Updated: Feb. 15, 2019 6:24 PM

Want snow tonight-Saturday?  Go south & southeast!

We just have the mid-level altostratus overcast from this system.

Our system will arrive Sunday.  Snow will increase through the morning be steady late morning to early afternoon, then become more periodic with perhaps even a few peeks of dim sun!  Periodic snow will then pivot back in Sunday night & last to early Monday.

So, what is behind snow becoming more periodic later Sunday with even a few peeks of sun for a bit?

A lobe of heavier snowfall will occur northwest & northeast of our area with the next system.  What gives?

Both of these things are from a dry slot coming in.

Heaviest snow will occur in deformation zone of low pressure to our northwest.  Heavier snowfall will occur also with the lift from the storm with dry slot filling in before it gets there.  We will be in the zone of less due to this slot in the right spot at the right time, it appears.

So, 6-9" may fall in Iowa & northwestern Illinois, as well as western New York to northern Ohio with a lot of 3-5s in the zone between Toledo Ohio & Peoria, Illinois..............except here. 

So, I went from 2-5" area-wide with highest totals in the northwest & least in the south & southeast to 1-3" for much of the area, EXCEPT the far northwest.  I think some of our northwestern area may still be far enough away from the dry slot & close enough to that deformation zone to bring 3-5" there.

Winds look brisk from the east to northeast at 15-30 mph in the morning to midday, then less in the afternoon, followed by north winds gusting 25-30 mph Sunday night.

Here's the dry slot:

You can see that dry slot curling into the storm system through the projected average cloud cover. 

Shows up well in the mid-level troposphere analysis (relative humidity at that level).  Rust/red is dry air.  Milky color to gray, white & light blue is moisture at that level.

Once the dry slot makes the snow more periodic & any dim peeks of sun exit, snow should pivot back in during the evening & last into the night.  Again, it should taper Monday morning.

Snow & even some ice is possible late Tuesday, Tuesday night to Wednesday with east to northeast then north winds gusting to 35 mph.

Article Comments

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