Outlook to Early March & February 15-16, 2021 Winter Storm Snowfall Totals

Here is a list of all totals & what is expected Wednesday-Thursday & to early March....

Posted: Feb 16, 2021 12:11 PM
Updated: Feb 16, 2021 1:47 PM

First near blizzard conditions since February 24, 2016.

Heaviest snowfall for viewing area since February 5-6, 2014.

Deepest snow pack in the area since February 14, 2014.

Biggest winter storm for the state of Indiana since January 5-6, 2014 or February 5-6, 2014 (sort of a toss-up).

Snowfall totals ran 6-11.5" over the area.

Highest totals were in the south in a band from southeast Champaign County Illinois through Fountain, Montgomery, southern Tippecanoe, Clinton, Tipton to Howard counties where most of the 11-11.5" amounts were reported.  10.5" reports occurred as far north as Flora & Peru.  The lowest reports of 6-7" were in western Benton & also parts of northwestern Newton & Jasper counties.

Thank you to all of our spotters from COOP to CoCoRAhs to public for these vital reports!!!

Peak measured gusts in the viewing area reached 25-38 mph.

Snowfall totals:

11.5"   Linden

11.0"   5 S Lafayette

11.0"   3 E Attica

11.0"   2 S Michigantown

11.0"   1.3 NW Tipton

11.0"   FIckle

10.5"   Peru

10.5"   Flora

10.1"   West Lafayette

10.0"   Covington

10.0"   Delphi

10.0"   Frankfort

10.0"   Crawfordsville

10.0"   3 E State Line City

10.0"    1 WNW Rochester

10.0"    Chalmers

9.5"      Remington

9.5"      Montmorenci

9.2"      5 S Deacon

9.2"      Rensselaer

9.2"      Burlington

9.1"     4 WNW Kokomo

9.0"     Southeast Lafayette

9.0"     Veedersburg

9.0"     WLFI Ob Site

9.0"     Logansport

9.0"     Monticello

9.0"     Pence

8.5"     1 SE Purdue University

8.5"     Kewanna

8.5"     Winamac

8.5"     Galveston

8.1"     Kentland

7.3"     Denver

7.0"     Northeast Lafayette

6.5"     4 S Earl Park

6.0"     Demotte

6.0"     Morocco

Pretty incredible the worst cold wave in Texas since 1989/1996 while Florida has had record warmth with lower 90s with heat indices to 102.

It was still around 80 after midnight lastnight over a good chunk of central & southern Florida!

Even now it is 54 in Massachusetts, 71 in eastern Virginia, but 32 right now at Corpus Christi, Texas & 20 at San Antonio. It is 28 at Houston's Intercontinental Airport!

It is just 34 at Monterrey, Mexico & 45 at Ciudad Victoria, Mexico!! The cold has made it to northern Veracruz, Mexico with Poza Rica at 52!!  Veracruz Airport is a rather chilly 69!  Mexico City, protected from the mountains is 73.

This is the farther south I have seen such a cold outbreak get in Mexico since the big early January 2017 outbreak when we actually dropped to -20 here in Greater Lafayette.  That was a big cold wave, but this cold wave is colder in Texas.....equal to '89 & '96.

So, it is colder in northern Veracruz than Massachusetts right now.......EXTREMELY RARE!  Virginia is warmer than the heart of Veracruz.

What an EXTREMELY LOOPY UPPER JET PATTERN!!!

Talk about a BIG FIGHT between the warm, wet MJO & all of the warm players just putting a wall against the Polar Vortex.

In a fight like this, you get one EXTREME upper jet & EXTREME pattern.

____________________________________________________________

Temperatures are running 14-22 over the viewing area as of 1 p.m.  We should reach 20-26 for highs, but the winds will be much lighter than yesterday.  Road conditions will continue to improve.

Most of this is snow pack in white!  It is solid snow cover from Mississippi to the North Pole!

This is the greatest amount of snow cover over the Lower 48 since February 2014 & February 2011 (toss up).

Also...........after record low ice pack over the Great Lakes after a very mild winter, ice is rapidly forming, but it is still below normal.

Note some cloudiness from eastern Illinois to Lake Michigan (Benton County & north & northwestward) & notice the bumpy texture of those clouds.  That is a band of lake effect cloudiness that will develop some snow showers with tie this afternoon for the northern half of the viewing.

Some of that lake effect cloudiness may linger into tonight with a couple flurries from it.

Lows tonight will be tricky.  Under the lake effect cloudiness & warmer air courtesy of Lake Michigan, we will only drop to 10-11.  However, where it clears in our west before the high & mid clouds arrive around pre-dawn, it may drop to -7 to -3 with a light to calm wind.

So, lows of -7 to 11 are expected.  In Greater Lafayette I settled on 7 for a low for now with some scattered to broken lake effect clouds, but subject to a quick change lower if we can get it completely clear for a long period of time..

As for Wednesday, highs should run 23-28 with east to east-southeast wind 5-11 mph.

Skies will become mostly cloudy to cloudy.

Dry air should chew up any snow that tries to fall.  Other than flurries or very light snow possible, I trended for dominant virga in the afternoon-evening.  We will monitor.

Snow is possible Wednesday night-Thursday morning, but I still think the heaviest will stay south of our area.

Winds will run 10-15 mph from the east to east-northeast, then northeast to north-northeast Wednesday night-Thursday.

Some minor blowing & drifting is expected.

The worst blowing & drifting with the strongest winds is expected south & southeast of our area.  There, gusts 30-35 mph are possible closer to the deepening surface low tracking from east-central Tennesee to West Virginia.

HERE...........currently 1-3" of snow snowfall is expected northwest to southeast.  +4" amounts currently look south & southeast of our area, but we will monitor.  At first, the alarm was +4" would set up over our area. 

If storm does shift back northwest again, then totals & higher winds will shift into our area.

It looks like the fourth ice storm in weeks well south & southeast of our area.  This, in an band of already extensive tree damage.

Freezing drizzle/freezing rain/some snow/sleet should give way to rain Sunday.

Periods of widespread rainfall are expected mid to late next week.

Major warm-up is expected with temperatures up to 20 degrees above normal.

T'Storms are even possible Friday.

Major melt-down is expected with flooding risk as 2-4" of rainfall is possible Sunday, February 21-March 4.

1-2.5" alone are expected mid- to late-next week.

Without the Polar Vortex & Greenland Block, warm, wet phase & La Nina muscle should flex again with warm, wet weather.

Big snowstorms & blizzards are possible in the Northern Plains, however.

Cold may try to tease a time or two to early March with subtle lingering effects of SSWE & loosening Polar Vortex, but warmth will dominate any big cold.

West Lafayette
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 68°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
67° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 67°
Rensselaer
Clear
63° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 63°
Fowler
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 68°
Williamsport
Clear
63° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 63°
Crawfordsville
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 64°
Frankfort
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 64°
Delphi
Clear
63° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 63°
Monticello
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 64°
Logansport
Clear
63° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 63°
Once more pleasant day before we see changes with an increase in heat and humidity, and thunderstorm chances.
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