SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

February 15, 1:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on Round #2 & the later Wednesday-Thursday system...

Posted: Feb 15, 2021 1:20 PM
Updated: Feb 15, 2021 2:31 PM

Round 2 is rapidly overspreading the area.  Watch for conditions to really worsen around & after 3.  That is when the heavy snow comes in & the winds pick up more.

Snow will be heavy at times into tonight before tapering early Tuesday morning with visibility down to 0.15-0.25 mile.  Near blizzard-type conditions are possible, especially in rural areas.

Northeast winds will be sustained at 13-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph at times, resulting in widespread blowing & drifting of this dry, powdery snow.

Adding up what we have received from Round 1 & then tacking that on to Round 2, 6-12" is expected with lighter totals of 6-8" in the northwest (Fowler to Rensselaer) & heaviest totals of 10-12" in the south & southeast (Crawfordsville to Frankfort to Kokomo).  9-10" is expected around Greater Lafayette. 

Drifts of 16-54" are expected in rural areas & some rural roads will be completely drifted shut & impassable.

The winds greatly diminish tomorrow with just some scattered snow showers & flurries, mainly from Lake Michigan with clouds & some sun trying to appear.

After near 10 for lows tonight, we should reach 18-22 tomorrow.

This all means greatly-improving road conditions in the afternoon to evening.

This is what happens when you get a Southeast U.S. & East Coast & Greenland upper ridge block & then you get a warm, wet Phase 7 MJO with a unique set-up with a SSWE Polar Vortex episode.  It all spells heavy precipitation in the cold air with a very active storm track from Texas to Ontario.

This is a great set-up for multiple winter storms over our area over & over.

So..........

After single digits Tuesday night, we cloud up Wednesday.

Looks like snow overspreads the area Wednesday late & lasts into Wednesday night, then Thursday before tapering late.

Strong east winds will go to the northeast, then north & may gust to 35 mph.

With will result in widespread blowing & drifting & bad conditions for any travel.

We still need to watch the track.

Right now, it is a perfect track for the heaviest snow to fall in the heart of the viewing area from Veedersburg through Lafayette, Monticello to western Fulton County.

It if tracks farther northwest then that heaviest snow axis will shift northwestward & we will see more of the ice come in.

It looks like an extensive icing situation with the system, so that needs to be monitored.  If it shifts & we get heavy icing, with gusts to 35 mph, that will be a completely different animal to deal with.

Then we deal with this..........

Rain & major thaw.........

It appears that rain will be possible Sunday...........then Wednesday-Thursday of next week......Then February 28-March 1.

It may all add up to 1.50-3.50" total from February 21-March 1.

40s & 50s will return.......the normally too cold GFS model actually has 68 as far northeast as Champaign, Illinois & 60s to Lafayette on February 25 (with even some severe risk as far north as our area).

This is what I expected in early February & then again in late February with the ice & snow in the middle!

Bottom line is that flood risk will increase in late February to early March.

Once we escape the grip of the SSWE with any cold intrusion trying to get in, early onset of spring should occur with wetter & stormier than normal pattern right into April.

Think of this pattern with storms & very warm weather instead with blizzards in the Northern Plains & eastern Rockies & the severe weather & tornado risk across the Midwest & Ohio Valleys.

Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 56°
Kokomo
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 47°
Rensselaer
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 50°
Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 56°
Danville
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 54°
Frankfort
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 50°
Frankfort
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 50°
Monticello
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 49°
Monticello
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 49°
Logansport
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 46°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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