February 15, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Colder with snow ahead.

Posted: Feb. 15, 2019 10:40 AM
Updated: Feb. 15, 2019 11:43 AM

Wind gusts peaked at has high as 40 mph overnight behind cold front in the viewing area. Peak gust at the Purdue Airport was 33 mph.  Attica gusted to 36 mph, Kentland Airport 39 mph, Fowler 40 mph, Round Grove 38 mph, 65/28 34 mph, Grissom ARB 32 mph, Morocco 33 mph, 7 SW Brook 34 mph.

Lows of 13-22 this morning with the winds resulted in wind chills as low as -5 in the viewing area.  Wind chills dropped to -5 at Kentland Airport & Morocco, -4 at Fowler, -1 Remington, 1 at the Logansport-Cass County Airport, 4 at the Purdue Airport, 3 at the White County Airport & 5 at the Crawfordsville Airport.

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Snow & ice stay south of us today-Saturday, but snow moves into our area Sunday morning before becoming more periodic in the afternoon.  It should snow off & one Sunday night-Monday morning.

Winds will be strong from the east at first with the snow, followed by diminishing trend with time.

Winds may kick right back up Sunday late night-Monday morning, this time from the north.

Gusts in these times the wind kicks up may reach up to 32 mph.

Blowing & drifting may be an issue Sunday morning-midday & again Sunday night-Monday morning.

NAM model has hole in our area with less snow with more snow northwest, south, northeast & north of the area, oddly.  Scratching my head on this scenario a bit, but it may come to fruition as the model is picking up on something I am not.

The heaviest snowfall with the system will occur northwestern Illinois to Iowa with 5-9".  As for us, given this odd split in the NAM, it sort of complicates things.

Right now, I am keeping more of a persistence forecast unless it appears that this hole oddity looks more & more likely to come to fruition.

I like 3-5" northwest & 1-3" everywhere else for now by Monday morning.  So, I cut from 2-5" to 1-5", but kept the highest amounts in the northwest part of the viewing area.

There are two or three systems to watch beyond the weekend to February 25.  Temperatures will average colder to much colder than normal.

A very brief flash spring with rain & t'storms at the end of February looks to be followed by unusually cold weather & snow potential in early March. 

50s & 60s are likely, then back to winter bitter cold.  Severe risk could get close, given strong storm system & very powerful upper jet in very loopy flow.  Low-level jet will be very strong, too, given baroclinic zone in the area with front (i.e. temperature difference ahead of & behind the front). 

We may go from 58-65 in parts of the viewing area to 20s quickly behind the front.

There is that punch of spring briefly northward, then sudden cold again.

It is one rough start to March as flash spring departs.

Bursts of unusually cold weather (record cold?) linger well into March.  Potential is there for the coldest first half of March since 1960.  At the very least, it looks like the coldest since 2014.  2014's first half ranks in the top 5 coldest starts to March on record since 1879.

I have no doubt that the March cold will moderate at times.  In fact, there may be a sudden, very nice flash spring for 30-36 hours in mid March before another wave of unusually cold air comes in.

We will not completely give up the grip of these intense cold waves with snow & ice risk (& I still think we just might get the heaviest snow event of the winter in March & we may even have an icing event) until on & after March 20; right on cue with astronomical spring.

Article Comments

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Rain returns tomorrow.
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