Combination of a warm, wet Phase 7 MJO with warm Southeast ridge & Greenland ridge blocking & SSWE causing loose piece of Polar Vortex in the Plains with record cold North Dakota to Texas (historic in Oklahoma & Texas!) will lead to the biggest snow event here in 5-7 years.
With the snowfall we already have on the ground, we will see the greatest snow depths in the viewing area since at least the 2013-14 winter & possible as far back as 2007 in some places.
Key points:
1. Winter Storm Warning viewing area-wide.
2. 6-12" snowfall expected (lighest northwest, heaviest southeast).................................WE MAY ONLY HAVE 1.5-4" tonight-Monday AM.....the rest will fall later tomorrow through tomorrow night (4-8").
3. Two rounds
4. Round #1: Later this evening-tonight-Monday AM
5. Round #2: Later Monday-Monday night-early Tuesday
6. Round #2 heavier than #1 with more wind
7. Blizzard-like conditions may be attained at peak snowfall rates & peak gusts 35-40 mph Monday night.
8. Rough conditions tonight-Monday morning, but should be worse Monday night-early Tuesday.
9. Widespread blowing & drifting snow with greatly-reduced visibility expected (especially with Round #2).
10. Drifts 1.5-4' in rural areas by Tuesday.
11. Last time we saw near-blizzard conditions was February 24, 2016 when up to 10.5" fell in the viewing area (4-10.5" south to north).
12. This looks like the biggest snowfall in Greater Lafayette since March 1-2, 2015 when up to 10" fell.
13. Looks like the biggest snowfall in our northern counties since February 24, 2016 storm.
14. Looks like the biggest snowfall in our southern counties since February 2014, March 1-2, 2015 or pre-Christmas December 2018 (toss-up) when these storms had overall 6-11".
15. So, overall, looks like the biggest snowstorm in 5-7 years for the area as a whole.
The top 5 worst snowstorms since 2006 have been 1) February 2007 Blizzard......2) Groundhog's Snowstorm/Blizzard of 2011.....3) January 5-6, 2014....4) February 5-6, 2014...5) March 19-20, 2014
Notes: 2010-11 snow season was the heaviest since 1981-82
February 2007 blizzard was worst storm since 1999 & before that, 1984
2013-14 winter was a toss-up of the snowiest since 1884-85, 1977-78 or 1981-82 for the viewing area, depending on where you reside or how long your records go back. It was the snowiest since 1884-85 at Greater Lafayette.
February 2014 saw the deepest snow pack since 2007.
March 2014 snow storm was the heaviest in March since 1875 with 8-13" measured over the viewing area. It was the biggest snow in March at Greater Lafayette since 1875.
We have not had more 10" fall in one storm in Tippecanoe County since March 2014.
March 2014 was the snowiest March since 1960.
So........................
Round #1: 1.5-4" + Round #2: 4-8"..........
Snowfall totals expected tonight-Tuesday early:
