February 12, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest.

Posted: Feb 12, 2020 7:32 PM
Updated: Feb 12, 2020 9:50 PM

2.0" here at the WLFI ob site with totals (from what I have received from spotters) varying 1.5-3" over the area as of 8:55 p.m.

Additional snow (of varying intensity with heavier bursts puncuated by much lower rates) will pass through tonight, but it will continue to be wet, sticky, gloppy snow with temperatures near 31-32 & not too much wind.

I'd go for higher totals than what we have forecasted for a while, but the heavy rainfall south of our area has & will intercept deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Current radar showing Flash Flood Warnings & Watches south of our area & strong to severe storms in eastern Kentucky to Tennessee (arrows show direction snow is moving):

Total accumulation of 3-6" by tomorrow night looks good with 6-9" in far northwest from lake enhancement expected.

I still kept the mention of very minor ice accumulation possible in the south as potential continues for a bit of sleet & freezing rain mixing in for part of tonight there.

Periodic snow is likely tomorrow, but it may come down in local heavy bursts at times, puncuated by breaks.

Widespread blowing & drifting will develop tomorrow as the temperature crashes & the snow becomes drier & more powdery to even fluffy at times.

Winds will run from the northwest at 15-30 mph.  However, a few gusts will exceed 35 mph.

Snow trend midnight tonight to afternoon tomorrow:

The roads will be slushy tomorrow morning, but the cold will come in very quickly, freezing up slush into a slippery to jagged, hard, concrete mass with time.  Your car door locks may freeze & wind shield wipers may freeze to your wind shield between tomorrow say 8 a.m. & 3 p.m.

Temperatures will fall from around 31-32 in the morning to 8-13 by early evening. 

Note the actual air temperatures at 7 a.m. tomorrow morning & the wall of cold just west of our area.  Life-threatening cold will exist well northwest of our area.  Those lows to -45 ARE NOT wind chills, but actual air temperatures!  Multiple record lows may fall from South Dakota to northern Iowa, Minnesota, northwestward to North Dakota.

Here comes the cold between tomorrow morning & evening (these are air temperatures NOT wind chills):

Tomorrow night's lows appear a hair more tricky.

Winds will be gradually diminishing, but not before bringing wind chills by early Friday morning of potentially -30 to -10.

I put such a range because if some lake effect cloudiness hangs on in some places, they will only drop to 0-4.

Areas that clear may tank to -11 to -5.

Best potential of the coldest air temperatures & wind chills with best clearing appears to be evolving for the US 41 corridor in our west.

Actual air temperatures for Friday morning:

Minimum wind chills early Friday morning:

Friday will be a bright & very cold day, but the winds will relax through the day. 

Highs should run 9-17.

Friday evening is another rather tricky temperature forecast.

With calm winds, snow pack a clear sky & strong Arctic surface high over the area, temperatures may absolutely tank.

A brief bout of some light freezing fog may occur underneath an inversion, which will reside underneath the Arctic high.

Between 7 p.m. & 1 a.m., a few locations may bottom out at -20 to -10.  -9 to 0 may be pretty widespread. 

If the Arctic high moves to the east too quickly & south-southeast wind kicks in sooner, then we will not bottom out so much.

Regardless, temperatures will rise once that wind kicks in to 8-15 by 7 a.m.  However, it is that south-southeast wind that will drop wind chills to -20 to -10 for a brief time Friday overnight to early Saturday morning.

Projection of minimum temperatures between 7 p.m. & 1 a.m. Friday evening.

Note all of the wind Saturday!  Southwest winds will be sustained at 15-23 mph with gusts exceeding 30 mph.  Blowing & drifting snow is likely.

High & mid clouds will be on the increase with temperature reaching 33-36 by 6 p.m., then hitting 35-39 overnight Saturday to early Sunday morning.

That, with the winds & melting of the upper-most 1" of snow still means potential of snow rollers.

They are very hard to predict, but these still look like decent conditions for them!

Snow stickiness & snow stickiness depth along with duration of sustained strong winds from one direction determine roller size & whether they form at all.

Your 7-day outlook:

1.  Some scattered rain/sleet/snow to snow Sunday before ending.  Any accumulation looks localized & amounting to just a dusting.

2.  Temperatures will fall from 38 Sunday morning to 30 by Sunday late afternoon-evening.

3.  High Monday will not occur until just before midnight.  Much of the day will be windy & cold with cold rain moving in.

4.  Tuesday's high will occur early in the morning, then fall to 32 by late afternoon-evening with strong northwest winds.

5.  Rain Tuesday may end as period of snow.  Any accumulation looks very minor.

6.  Potential is there for a solid 1" rainfall event Monday-Tuesday morning.  This, atop snow on the ground & some frozen ground means run-off.  Rises in creeks & streams may jam up ice from quick deep freeze Thursday PM to Saturday AM.

7.  Wednesday looks dry & partly cloudy with colder weather.

8.  Clipper may bring some snow by late next week with very minor to minor accumulations.  Strong, gusty winds & re-enforcing shot of cold air may accompany the system.

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Dry, windy, very warm weather, followed by scattered rain & much cooler conditions.
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