February 12, 1:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Active forecast.....

Posted: Feb 12, 2020 1:05 PM
Updated: Feb 12, 2020 4:30 PM

We are under a NWS-issued Winter Weather Advisory for impactful snowfall & blowing & drifting snow today through tomorrow.

I would go higher on snowfall totals for our area if not for a chunk of the deep moisture being stolen to produce the flooding to significant flooding from Texas to southwestern Pennsylvania.  Severe weather is also possible in that zone, especially in the South.

Note all of the Flood Watches & Flood Warnings up:

Rain/sleet/snow will overspread the area between now & 4 p.m. southwest to northeast over the area.  Temperatures will fall from 34-38 to 30-32 with time.

It should change to all snow by evening with the only hold-over potentially being be the far southeast.  There some sleet may hang on just a bit longer.

It will be steady wet snow all night, but wind should not be a big issue.

Temperatures will be steady at 30-32.

Snow will become more periodic & much drier & powdery to fluffy tomorrow.

The wind will also pick up.  Northwest winds will run 15-30 mph with some gusts exceeding 35 mph.

This will lead to pretty widespread blowing & drifting over the area.

Temperatures will also fall Thursday.  After 30-32 in the early morning, we should drop to 8-16 by early evening.

Wind chills by early evening will drop to -12 to -1.

Total snowfall accumulation should run 3-6" over much of the viewing area.

A band over Newton & Jasper counties from near Kentland to Demotte may see 6-9".

Periodic snow will taper to snow showers, the flurries by Thursday night with some clearing ensuing.

Lows of -12 to 0 are likely by Friday morning with the coldest temperatures in our western & northwestern fringe & warmest temperatures in the northeast.

Wind chills may drop to -15 to -30 Friday morning.  The lowest wind chills look to be in our far western & northwestern fringes from Morocco to Kentland to Ambia.  The highest chills look to be in our northeast.

Blowing & drifting will be an issue Thursday night to early Friday morning.

Friday will be bright, but very cold with highs 8-17.  There will be much less wind, but enough for wind chills -7 to 3 with a northwest breeze.

As we go calm & clear with strong high surface pressure over snowpack Friday evening, temperatures will tank.

Potential is there for us to drop to a brief -20 to -4 before 1 a.m.

South-southeast wind will kick in after 1 a.m. Friday night.

In fact, by Saturday morning at 7 a.m., temperatures should be 8-15 over the viewing area.

Thing is, we have a window for the potential of wind chills to drop to -20 to -10 late Friday night-early Saturday morning.

This will occur as that south-southeast wind kicks up.

Saturday will feature increasing high & mid clouds with strong winds from the southwest up to 35 mph leading to blowing & drifting snow.

As we warm to 34-38 Saturday night, the upper 0.5-1" of snow atop our snowpack may melt a bit & turn sticky.

This will diminish the blowing & drifting tendencies, but may bring a window for the potential of some snow rollers.

It is not a guarantee, as snow consistency & the wind has to be perfect, but it is possible. 

I cut precipitation coverage down from 50% to 35% for Sunday, as it looks like fewer & fewer rain/snow/sleet showers with clipper.

After highs 35-38 early Sunday, temperatures should fall into the 20s in the afternoon. 

Any sort of accumulation from any snow showers should only amount to a dusting.

Rain arrives Monday & lasts into Monday night & early Tuesday for changing to snow, then ending.

This will be a windy system with gusts to 40 mph, especially on the backside of it Tuesday.

Some very minor accumulation may occur with the snow Tuesday as temperatures tank.

We may rise to 50s Monday night-early Tuesday morning, then quickly fall through the 30s.

Note the bulls-eye of 1" rains across our area.  If a band of very heavy rain develops in the southern U.S. again, then these totals may be less.

Regardless, the rain will fall on rapidly-melting snowpack & still partially frozen ground that was saturated prior to the freeze up.  This means that some localized ponding & flooding could occur.

Also, ice may jam up on some waterways in the area, resulting in localized sudden, sharp rises.

A gusty clipper late next week may bring some very minor to minor snowfall.  It will also re-enforce another round of cold, cold weather.

Highs in the 20s with lows near 0 to the single digits are possible.

There is an overall late February to early March trend for our mean temperatures to add up below normal.

Precipitation looks normal, but above normal in the highly flood-prone zone south of our area.

Latest data continues to show March mean temperature anomalies looking like this (below normal here):

I still am siding with the thoughts of above normal precipitation in March & on into April & May.

Note how the March-April-May precipitation is trending overall above normal (IRI model below courtesy of Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate & Society):

Trend is to turn us a bit more toward a bit above normal for March-April-May (Spring) period overall:

Both U.S. & European long-range, seasonal-scale models are trending toward a warmer than normal summer here.

There is also a trend for a pocket of a drier than normal June-July-August over at least part of our area (overall).

We will continue to monitor.

U.S. model:

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Broken Clouds
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Warmer, dry weather is ahead for the weekend.
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