February 11, 9:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots of icing underway...........What is ahead?

Posted: Feb 11, 2019 8:54 PM
Updated: Feb 12, 2019 10:51 AM

We have had icing on parking lots, secondary roads, sidewalks for a while here at the television station at West Lafayette, even with the 2-meter temperature hovering at 33-34.  This is due to the temperature not rising enough to combat the freezing on ice-cold parking lots & the ground.  Interestingly, despite the ice-over of the ground, the trees & powerlines are largely ice-free as they have warmed to the actual air temperature.

Mary Anne informs me that they are completely iced over with 32 right in Remington.

Now.................

Temperature has actually dropped from 33 to 32 in the past 30 minutes at the television station & we are now down to 32 at the Purdue Airport.  Why have we dropped?  Why is Rensselaer & Rochester warmer than the Fowler, Monticello & Logansport?

These strong east winds are bleeding in molasses-like cold from the east.  The coldest air over snow pack is bleeding in from central Ohio & Pennsylvania, not the Lakes farther north & northeastward.  This air is bleeding down the Wabash & Tippecanoe Valleys & over the Bluffton Till Plain into the heart of the area like oozing pancake syrup.

This reminds me so much of an episode we had in January 2010 when the ground was frozen with some snow & it was 32-36 during the day, then that east wind cranked up around a cold surface high over Ontario & over Ohio snow pack.  The rain/freezing rain looked to change to all rain in a pretty short period of time with the east wind going to the southeast.  Instead, it took forever to change to completely take over as the cold east wind dominated.  Models are not handling this cold east wind bleeding in the cold very well.

So, that said, we may change over to freezing rain for much of the area in the next hour, then remain in freezing rain for part of the night.  Areas north of 24 may stay in freezing rain until 5-7  a.m.

Icing is likely on secondary roads, parking lots & overpasses.

Be careful!  The ice is very misleading!  It looks like just a wet road!

The latest short-range, high-resolution HRRR model seems to have the freezing rain line about 29 miles to far to the north this evening.  So, thinking that we should push the freezing rain line in the model about 30 miles south for the night.  That would give us a time frame to work with in the changeover from freezing rain to rain.  For it to be all rain, however, it really needs to warm to 34-36 as the pavement is so ice cold.

After rain early tomorrow morning with gusty southeast winds to 30 mph, winds should suddenly relax & dense fog will develop.  I really am thinking now that widespread 0.25 mile or less may rapidly develop from southwest to northeast & be over the viewing area 6 a.m. to 11 a.m.  The fog will quickly get whisked away as rain comes back in & cold front approaches. 

Then strong cold front will pass 1-4 p.m. with rainfall developing ahead of & just behind it.  Rapid changeover to snow should occur & the winds really crank back up.

Gusts should easily reach 35 mph from the west northwest, but I think there will be corridors of 40-50 mph gusts, perhaps even an isolated +50 mph gust.

With the wind & snow, conditions will worsen late afternoon to evening & into tomorrow night as temperatures quickly drop into the 20s.

1-2" of snow is likely & it will blow around a lot!  North-south roads will be impacted the most by blowing & drifting snow (even at only 1-2").

A few places (mainly in the southwest) may fall just short of 1" of snow (0.7, 0.8").

Wind chills will drop to around 0 by Wednesday morning with temperatures near 21.  The main snow will have exited, but flurries & snow showers may linger to mid-morning Wednesday.  Mostly cloudy & gradually-decreasing winds should follow Wednesday afternoon with highs 28-32.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Windy and Warmer Weather for Wednesday.
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