February 11, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Feb 10, 2020 12:37 PM
Updated: Feb 10, 2020 2:50 PM

After 0.3-1.5" snow Saturday & Trace-1.5" snow Sunday, we have picked up anywhere from 0.10-1.40" of liquid (largely rainfall) since yesterday.

Lowest totals were in the far northwest near the Kankakee River.  The highest totals were in the far south in southern Montgomery County.

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It will be a gray, foggy afternoon with some light drizzle to freezing drizzle possible with steady temperatures as 32-35.

After 20s tonight with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with some fine, grainy light snow/flurries to even a bit of light freezing drizzle with haze & light fog.  A light dusting of snow on some roofs & car tops are possible. Remember, it does not take much snow or dampness on roads for a slick spot or two.

Highs tomorrow should run 34-39 with some clearing possible.

Lows Tuesday night should run in the 20-25 range with increasing clouds, followed by 30s Wednesday.

The next storm system is Wednesday-early Friday.

Snow, ice, even some rain, then more snow is possible.

There is a question regarding dominant precipitation types due to uncertainty on exact track of the storm system. 

We will monitor as new data rolls in.

Winds pick up with the storm, but they should peak on the back side of it & then especially Thursday.  Some +40 mph gusts from the northwest are possible with some lingering snow showers.

Any snow will blow & drift about & bitter cold air will be blasting in.

We are looking at our first below 0 lows of the winter ahead.

As the bitterly cold air comes in Thursday, wind chills may briefly drop to -30 to -20 Thursday night.

Germany's ICON model seems to handle our morning lows late week better than any other model.

The potential is there for some places in the viewing area to drop to -20 Friday &/or Saturday morning with Arctic high, calm winds, an inversion & snow pack.   A heavy frost with freezing fog is also possible.

Canadian model forecast lows are a bitter milder, but I agree with it regarding the cold over Minnesota & Iowa.

Clipper may bring wave of snow showers around Saturday, February 15 with strong, gusty winds.

February 17-18 is a period to watch for a more substantial, widespread storm system (compared to the clipper) with precipitation.

Unclear how this systme will evolve, but snow to ice to rain are possible.

I do think there will be a random, brief spring again in the February 18-25 period somewhere.  We could see some 60s again for a time with a spring, perhaps for only 36 hours.  Some t'storms with flooding risk are also possible.

This system could be a big flooding episode again for the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys with +3" of rainfall.  We could see 1-2.5" of rainfall.

I do think bitterly cold air will come in behind this system with the potential of a 50- to 55-degree temperature drop with howling northwest winds.

February 28-March 15 look below to well-below normal temperature-wise as Arctic air comes into eastern U.S. in continual surges.

The first week of March does not look as cold as last year, though.  Last year saw the coldest start to March since 1960.

Look like we may pick up a couple of clippers with some snow & then perhaps a bigger snow near March 11-12.

Potential is there for a couple of big snowstorms (Nor'Easters from North Carolina to the Northeast in early to mid-March, only re-enforcing the cold in here.

Precipitation is slightly below normal end of February to mid-March due to drier spell with the Arctic air.  It looks like a couple of clippers & one main winter weather system coming up from the southwest from Texas.

The good news?  The cold tends to moderate in the March 16-23 period & we will have bled the supply north & northwest of our area.

With this, we trend back toward above normal rainfall again.

Spring is trending overall closer to normal now (March-April-May) after a colder than normal first part:

Spring still trending toward wetter than normal overall:

Trend continues for a hotter than normal summer overall (June-July-August):

Summer is trending a bit drier than normal (overall) as well:

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Welcome rain will continue, followed by a nice end to the week..
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