February 12, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update: From Ice to Fog, Now to Rain & Wind to Snow

Pattern will remain active right into next week.

Posted: Feb 12, 2019 10:32 AM
Updated: Feb 12, 2019 1:41 PM

Up to 0.20" of ice accumulated lastnight in northern Miami & Fulton counties with 0.10" reported from Logansport & Monticello.  I had 0.05" at West Lafayette before it melted.  Dense fog this morning followed, but now winds are beginning to increase as strengthening surface low & strong cold front approach.  This is & will continue to help to mix out the fog.

Showers will arrive midday, then quickly go to snow as the cold front passes.  Periodic snow will be with us into tonight.  Total accumulation by tomorrow morning will run around 1" to 2" (slightly less than 1" in the south & southwest). 

Latest radar loop:

There is a lot of really cold air aloft with this system in Illinois currently, so the potential is there for heavy bursts of snow.  We are just falling short of a thunder mention, but we are awfully close as the showers, then bursts of snow pivot through.

This with the falling temperatures to the 20s by the evening with the high winds will result in slick roads & blowing & drifting snow.  Even minor amounts of snow will blow & drift about, given the winds.

Visibility will be greatly reduced in the snow & blowing snow this afternoon-evening-tonight.  Conditions will go downhill from this afternoon right into the evening.

Wind will become strong this afternoon & last through evening & into tonight.

Wind Advisory is up for the entire viewing area. 

Sustained winds of 15-30 mph are likely with gusts 40-50 mph.  Some isolated 55 mph gusts are also possible.

Secure your trash cans!

A couple isolated power outages are possible & a few weakened, dead limbs may come down. 

Temperatures will fall from 36-42 to 18-25 by midnight.

Wind chills will drop to -6 to 0 with lows tomorrow morning at 15-20.

It will still be blustery into tomorrow morning with gusts to 30 mph with some lingering snow flurries & snow showers.  Watch for slick roadways.

The afternoon looks mostly cloudy with a slow decrease in the wind with highs 27-33.

Temperatures will actually rise Wednesday night from the 20s to the 30s, followed by highs in the 40-45 range Thursday.  Winds will be strong from the southwest Thursday up to 33 mph.

Showers will move in during the afternoon, followed by a quick changeover to snow in the evening as temperatures fall to the 20s. 

Winds will be strong from the northwest with the frontal passage & behind the front with gusts to 40 mph.

Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are possible.

Alberta clipper will pass nearby Saturday-Saturday night with minor accumulating snowfall from Missouri to southern Illinois & Indiana to Kentucky, Virginia & northern North Carolina.  1.5-4" could fall with it with isolated 6" amounts in the higher terrain of Kentucky & Virginia.  We will continue to monitor that track.

Colorado low looks to bring accumulating snowfall in Sunday-Sunday night.  This has the POTENTIAL to be a 3-6" for our area with strong gusty winds to 35 mph, resulting in considerable blowing & drifting snow.

Another Colorado low or Panhandle low will bring snowfall to the region mid next week.  Potential is there for a band of 4-6" from Arkansas to Indiana to northwestern Ohio.  The exact track will determine whether we see 4-6" or only 1-2" or 2-4" instead. 

The weekend of February 23-24 may also feature an accumulating snowfall with potentially 2-5".  This would be from a vigorous clipper with gusty winds.

Temperatures will be below to well below normal this weekend right up to February 25.  Some below zero nights are likely, but I do not see the kind of cold we had back in January occurring this go-around.  Nonetheless, some -30 to -20 wind chills would not surprise me & -11 to -5 low temperatures would not surprise me either before February is finished.

Note the lobes of cold that continue to blast southward through mid & late February.

I do see a signal for a very brief flash thaw/flash spring.  I may last only 24 hours, but potential is still there in late February, possibly at some point in early March, embedded in an overall very cold pattern.

Early March does not look good at all if you want spring.  I think the first few days of March could be the coldest since 1960.

Temperatures will average well below normal.

Even to around March 8-10, it looks rough!  I would not be surprised if we see a big winter storm in the first 12 days of March with potentially the biggest snow of the winter.

Even up to March 12-14, there is just not much promise of warmth.  Our temperatures may run 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

Multiple overnight lows of 0 or below 0 are possible in the first 15 days of March.  Breakage of daily record low temperatures on a couple or few days are on the table.  Also, daily minimum high temperature records being broken are on the table, as well with the risk of snow & ice events right to mid March.

Given the strength of the cold & time of year, we need to watch for the potential of a random icing event or ice storm.  If a wetter MJO phase can line up with a highly negative NAO & AO & we we see the Bermuda cause an Arctic front to stall around the area, we could set ourselves up for ice or an all-out ice storm.

The unusually cold weather with snow & ice potential may linger to as late as March 20!

However, we will turn the tide in a big way late in the month with a warmer than normal April ensuing after a March we would rather forget!  I think this will seem to happen overnight...........like flipping a switch.  We can then say good riddance to a round January-March 2019!

I think March 2019 will end up ranking as one of the coldest on record, overall.........probably in the top 5, possibly top 3.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Scattered Clouds
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Not so bad for now, but much colder next week.
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