SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

February 10, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is in.....here is your update!

Posted: Feb 10, 2020 3:04 PM
Updated: Feb 10, 2020 5:53 PM

A bit of patchy, grainy light snow is possible tonight with light fog.

Some local very light dustings of snow grains with a bit on rooftops & car tops.

Remember that even dampness on roads & a thin film of snow grains can create a few slick spots, depending on your vehicle's tire tread.

Lows tonight should run 25-29 with a light wind from the north to northwest.

Above 4,000 to 5,000' it is dry & warmer with an inversion.

So, our saturated area (stratus & light fog deck) will run only perhaps 2000-4000' thick.

Lift is subtle in that layer, but it is actually a rather decent, steep lapse rate in those lower levels.

This points to fine droplets (not any flakes what-so-ever) freezing into small pellets (snow grains).

Some clearing will occur tomorrow with highs with a west-northwest wind increasing to 10-20 mph.  Highs should reach 34-39.

As quickly as low clouds erode, high cirrus & cirrocumulus will begin to increase from the southwest above those breaking stratus/stratocumulus.

We should turn to an altostratus (mid-level) overcast Tuesday night with lows 20-26 with very light south-southeast to south wind at 2-6 mph.

My thinking is that temperatures will fall quickly in the evening to 20-26, given thin nature of cirrus cloudiness, then level off & even rise a degree or two as the clouds thicken & lower with commencement of south-southeast to south wind.

Snow will overspread the area Wednesday, then the south should go to freezing rain & sleet, then freezing rain/rain by evening-early night.  We should all then go back to ALL SNOW overnight.

Thinking areas north of 18 could end up as all snow based on current analysis.

Looks like snow to sleet/freezing rain, then snow for Tippecanoe County.

Fountain & Montgomery to Clinton counties will have the longest duration of sleet, freezing rain & even brief rain.

So, highest snowfall amounts from system should be in our northern & northwestern areas.

So................Wednesday:

Snow overspreads area by afternoon.

Snow changes to freezing rain & sleet in the south by 7 p.m.

Freezing rain & sleet line may only get as far north as areas south of Route 18.

Veedersburg to Kirklin & southward line may go to rain briefly in the evening.

Everyone should be back to snow by 1 a.m., it appears.

South to southeast winds will turn to east, then northeast between Wednesday morning & Wednesday night.

Wind does not look to be a big issue during this time at 6-12 mph.

Back to all snow viewing area-wide Wednesday night:

Snow is likely through Thursday morning & then even periodically through Thursdsay evening.

In the early- to mid-morning, winds will run 10-20 mph from the north, so some areas of minor blowing & drifting are possible.

Note band of enhanced snow that comes through, as well.  That is the Arctic front.

That should pass in the late morning to midday.

With its passage (& the band of heavier snowfall, possible snow squalls), temperatures should crash from 27-30 to 8-14 in about 5-6 hours.

The wind turn to the northwest & crank up significantly.....sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45  mph.  Winds should stay at such a level until around 9-11 p.m. Thursday night (but still run 10-25 mph the rest of the night).

This will lead to widespread blowing & drifing snow with greatly reduced visibility of less than 0.25 mile at times.

It appears that a band of 6-8" may occur in our northwestern areas with lesser amounts with southeastward extent. 

It is too early to pump out a snowfall map with more detailed or exact numbers.

More detailed maps will be up as confidence increases in more exact amounts.

Some minor icing is possible in the south & southeast.

With a snow pack & a clearing sky with Arctic air coming in, lows of -7 to 0 are possible by Friday morning.  Wind chills of -30 to -20 are possible.

Despite lots of sun, highs Friday should only reach 6-13, but at least winds will diminish greatly to just 2-6 mph from the west-northwest.

With a clear sky Friday night & light to calm wind, temperatures may tank.

Widespread lows of -13 to -6 are likely, but I cannot rule out some areas dropping to -20 if a strong inversion develops.

Our surface pressure may reach 1040 mb with Arctic high nearly overhead the viewing area at 8 p.m.

Wind will turn to the southeast at 3-6 mph very late, so temperatures may rise after 5 a.m.

Heavy frost & some freezing fog are also possible during the night-time to early morning hours.

Only way it would not get as cold is if Arctic high exits sooner & southeast wind gets here sooner without a strong inversion.

Saturday looks windy with south-southeast to south winds 20-30 mph & highs sky-rocketing to 31-36.  Still, blowing & drifting snow are possible, especially before 2 p.m. before we get a chance to get that top layer of snow melted into a heavy wet slush to contain it.

High & mid clouds will be on the increase Saturday.

A brief period of snow & ice is possible Saturday night, followed by period of nasty, gross, cold rain Sunday.

Winds may gust to 40 mph Saturday night from the southwest & 35 mph from the southwest Sunday before turning to the west in the evening as cold front passes.

MAJOR warm-up is likely February 17-18 with rainfall developing & potential of 1-2", leading to rising rivers & some ponding/flooding.  A 36-hour spring is likely with highs peaking at 58-63.  A couple isolated embedded t'storms are possible.

Chunks of ice may jam in creeks after such cold only 3-4 days prior, causing streams to back up in some places, leading to enhanced local water rises.

Strong to high wind event is possible Wednesday morning-midday as system deepens to our northeast.  Some gusts +40 mph could occur.

Then, it get cold with highs 20s, 30s with potential of snow around February 20-21 from storm system coming out of Texas.

After this storm system, a series of clipper & Arctic front will keep temperatures largely below normal February 23-28 with three opportunties for some very minor to minor snowfall.

Lafayette
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Warmest weather since early November.
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