February 10, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Snow Overspreading the Area.......Then Freezing Rain with Issues Through Monday in the Viewing Area

Snow & freezing rain, followed by rain, then back to snow with high winds over the next 48 hours.

Posted: Feb. 10, 2019 11:52 AM
Updated: Feb. 10, 2019 12:35 PM

Snow is overspreading the area.

Snow will transition to light freezing rain by this evening & be with us off & on into the night.

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After 1-2" of snow, some minor glaze ice accumulations of less than 0.10" are expected.

It will be a rather breezy day with east to southeast winds at 10-20 mph.

Temperatures will rise to 28-32 north to south tonight.

Now to 3 a.m.:

Projected snowfall totals:

Projected glaze ice accumulation:

After a break, freezing rain will return by mid-morning Monday & overspread the area south to north with areas of fog around.

It may stay as freezing rain much of the day (even into the night in the far northeast) north of a Pine Village to Battle Ground to Kokomo line. 

South of that line, icing accumulations look of shorter duration & trace to 0.05".  Up to 0.15" of ice may accrete north of that line with freezing rain potentially lasting throughout the afternoon. Given the gusty southeast winds to 30 mph, a few dead branches may come down with that ice accumulation.

I am closely watching the potential of freezing rain lasting to as late as 4 a.m. Tuesday morning in Fulton, Cass & northern Miami counties.  If that happens, then 0.25" of ice is possible there.  That type of ice, given the gusty winds to 30 mph, may cause some branches to break & lead to a few isolated power outages.

Temperatures will rise to 36 in the south to 31 in the north with the 32 line setting up near/just south of Indiana 18 for much of the afternoon.

The entire viewing area should finally be in all cold rain by 5 a.m. Tuesday morning with temperatures 34 north to 40 in the south.

Rain should end Tuesday morning, followed by fog & drizzle & much less wind in the 8 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. time frame.  Temperatures should reach 36-42 over the viewing area.

Rain should re-develop around midday & overspread the area with increasing wind from the south.

Arctic front should pass in the 1-4 p.m. time frame west to east over the viewing area.

A sudden changeover to snow will occur with a rapid increase in the wind.  The snow will become wind-driven & blow & drift everywhere as temperatures fall from 36-43 to the 20s very quickly.

The heaviest snowfall in the area should pass between 3 & 9 p.m.

Sustained northwest winds may run 15-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph & a few isolated gusts as high as 55 mph.  Highest winds look to occur in the 6-9 p.m. time frame.

1-2" of snow is likely.  Roads will be slippery & hazardous.

Total liquid now to Tuesday night will run 1-2.25" over the area.  This includes the snow, freezing rain & rain & if the frozen precipitation was melted down with the rain.

A similar storm is likely Thursday-Friday with rain, some freezing rain & wind-driven snowfall with high winds.  1-2" of snow is possible.  1-2" of liquid could occur with this system.

Active pattern will continue with 2, possible 3 winter weather systems with ice & snow February 17-24.

Shots of bitterly cold air are likely, as well.

After wintry pattern a flash spring could occur BRIEFLY at the end of February, but more rain & thawing will make for continued flooding issues.

Our analog forecast of below to well-below normal temperatures for the first 12 days of March is now being supported in longer-range model solutions.

Potential is there for the coldest temperatures TO BEGIN March since 1960. It will not be the coldest March since 1960, but the first couple of days may be with lows below 0.

Article Comments

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Mild temps and more showers.
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