Snow should overspread the viewing area Wednesday with sleet & freezing rain in the south. After highs 33-36, we should cool to 28-32 during the precipitation.
It appears that areas north of Route 18 may still end up as ALL SNOW.
South of 18, some sleet/freezing rain may occur, but it will be the longest in Fountain, Montgomery & southern Clinton counties.
It should go back to all snow for the entire viewing area Wednesday overnight.
There will not be enough wind to cause a big blowing & drifting issue Wednesday-Wednesday evening. However, increasing wind from the northeast to 15-25 mph Wednesday night will begin to cause blowing & drifting snow.
That changes Thursday with the snow. Mid-morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon, tanking temperatures & widespread blowing & drifting snow is likely.
North to northwest winds may gust 35-45 mph at times. Sustained winds should run 20-25 mph.
Temperatures should fall from 26-30 early to 8-13 by evening with wind chills to -12.
There is a trend to shift the band of heaviest snowfall more to the south toward the heart of the viewing area. Euro, U.S. GFS, U.S. NAM, Canadian models all show this shift in latest solutions. German ICON is still more to our northwest.
Japan's JMA model seems to take the surface low too far to the south with a general 2-5" area-wide with highest totals in the south.
The UKMET has a general 2-4".
I have no doubt that there will be a band of 6-8" with this system, but so far out, I'd rather keep the forecast as status quo until consistent runs show that band right in the heart of the area.
Status quo is best potential of 6-8" over Newton, Jasper counties & less than 6" for the rest of the area.
Watch the coldest air of the winter blast in Thursday night to Friday morning. Lows below 0 are likely with potential of wind chills -30 to -20 by early Friday morning with blowing & drifting snow.
Friday p.m. looks bright but cold with much less wind & highs only 6-13.
With a clear sky, potential is there for widespread lows -13 to -6, however a few areas may drop to -20.
How cold it gets will tend to get tied to how quickly the wind increase again with shift to the south-southeast.
The longer the strong Arctic high sits over the area Friday night, the higher potential of getting very cold.
Note how the brutal cold abates ahead of a system Saturday that will bring highs back to 31-36 with blowing & drifting snow with southwest winds to 40 mph. This, after the below 0 temperatures early Saturday morning.
Burst of snow & ice is possible Saturday night, followed by some rain Sunday with gusty southwest winds. Highs should run 36-41 after lows of 29-33 Saturday night, then rising.
The rain may end as brief snow Sunday evening as temperatures fall to 29-32.
40-hour spring is possible Monday afternoon-evening to Tuesday. Brief highs of 58-63 are possible.
Potential is there for 1-2" of rainfall with isolated t'storms.
Some flooding is possible & some creek may jam ice & make for localized sharp rises.
Strong southwest winds may gust to 35 mph. Behind the storm as the much, much colder air comes in (you can see it nosing in over the Dakotas & Iowa on the map below), northwest winds may gust to 45 mph Tuesday night-Wednesday of next week.
After this, below normal temperatures tend to dominate the rest of February with 2-3 clippers with potential of some very minor to minor snowfall accumulations for each one for at least parts of the area.
New runs in...............
March is still overall cooler & wetter than normal:
Wetter....March..............wetter March-April overall..........
This is the European model for February-March-April showing above normal precipitation in our region.