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February 9, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update: Snow & Ice Ahead & Powerhouse Storm Monday-Tuesday & Another Later Week

Active pattern is ahead with a lot of wind & a mix of all forms of precipitation with continued river flooding threat for weeks.

Posted: Feb 9, 2019 9:16 AM
Updated: Feb 10, 2019 12:31 PM

A large storm system will bring snow, then some brief sleet to period of freezing rain to the viewing area Sunday.

Looks like all snow for the area 9 a.m. to 1 p.m.

Snow should change to freezing rain (with potential of brief period of sleet) from southwest to northeast over the area during the afternoon before ending around midnight.

It appears that 1" or less of snow is possible along & south of Indiana 28 (Attica to Frankfort) & 1-2" of snow is possible north of that line.  2-3" is possible in a pocket where the snow will last the longest before changing to freezing rain.  This pocket will occur over northern Miami, northern Cass, far northeastern White, eastern Pulaski & Fulton counties.

Glaze ice accumulations of 0.01-0.07" are likely.  Greatest ice accumulations will occur in our southern areas south of Indiana 28.

Band of freezing rain will pass over the area 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. Monday from south to north.  0.01" to 0.11" glaze ice is possible before this changes to cold rain.  The greatest ice accumulations currently look to be over western Warren to Benton, Newton & western Jasper counties.

After wind-driven rain Monday night to Tuesday, we should get into a dry slot with rainfall subsiding Tuesday morning.  Southeast winds 15-30 mph Monday night will decrease to 9-13 mph Tuesday morning with a turn to the southwest.  However, winds will turn to the west by late morning & rapidly increase to 20-35 mph.  Winds will increase & turn to the northwest, peaking 4-9 p.m. with sustained winds at 25-33 mph & gusts 45-55 mph.  Isolated power outages are possible & some weakened, dead tree branches may come down.

Driving snow with the high winds should overspread & pass through the area 3-10 p.m. with plummeting temperatures from the 40 to the 40s to the 20s.  At least snow showers will remain over the area to as late as 3 a.m.

1-2" of snowfall looks possible, but it will blow everywhere.

Road conditions will go downhill & visibility will be low Tuesday afternoon-evening to night.  The worst looks to occur after 5 p.m. Tuesday.  That is when roads, wind & snow combination look to be the worst.

Storm will be so strong that the snow & cold will wrap completely around the center of the storm system & actually the snow & coldest air will come into our southwestern counties first & then overspread the area northeastward with time.

Given water-loaded soils & high rivers & streams, we are sensitive to rainfall & thawing right now.

Total liquid over frozen ground (all snow, ice & rain) will run 0.75-1.50" northwest to southeast by Tuesday night.

Note the band of 2-6" of rainfall Arkansas to Kentucky & southern Indiana, an area that does not need any additional rainfall as significant flooding is on-going.

Problem is that another powerhouse storm is possible Thursday-Friday night.

Widespread rainfall is likely Thursday (with may begin as very brief freezing rain in the far north) with strong southeast to south winds to 33 mph.  Rain will continue into Thursday night as temperatures rise to 40 to even the 40s.

However, Arctic front will roar through Friday morning in the 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. time frame.

Like the first storm, the snow & cold will tend to wrap in underneath the storm center, resulting in the coldest air with the snow coming into our southwestern counties first & then overspreading the viewing area northeastward.

This storm may result in the second blizzard within days from Kansas & Nebraska to Iowa, Wisconsin, southern Minnesota to even far northern Missouri & northwestern Illinois.

Snow off & on & high winds are possible in the 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. time frame over the area.  The worst conditions of highest winds, greatest snow rates & coverage & slippery roadways looks to be in the 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. time frame.

0.8-2.5" of snow cannot be ruled out with the highest snowfall amounts in the northwest counties.

Peak sustained northwest winds of 25-30 mph are possible with gusts 45-55 mph.  Temperatures should fall from 40/40s early Friday morning to teens by Friday evening with wind chills below zero.

Next Saturday looks bitter with highs only at 15-21 with a still strong west-northwest wind at 20-35 mph.

Clipper system with snow is possible late next weekend (1-2" & a lack of wind, though), along with snow around February 18-19, as well from Colorado low (southern system).  That one bears more watching than the clipper as it will have more wind & better potential of greater snowfall amounts.  The track is in question, however.

Bitterly cold air may drop lows to below zero around February 21-23.

I still think a sudden, flash spring could occur at the very end of February with 50s & 60s with rain & even some t'storms.  Ice jams & flooding is possible.  We should turn back cold & snowy & icy again as we move into early March, however.

I think below to well-below temperatures with potential of some snow & ice at times is possible right up to around March 12 before pattern completely flips to consistently warmer weather.

We will likely have river flooding issues right up to early March given the active weather & then another sudden thaw with rain again at the end of the month.

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