February 1, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the 48-hour spring & winter to follow.

Posted: Feb 1, 2020 4:44 PM
Updated: Feb 1, 2020 5:40 PM

Patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle & period of patchy dense fog is possible tonight with temperatures 31-34 rising to 34-38 late.

Winds will increase from the southwest at 15-30 mph by early morning with wind chills in the 20s.

Skies will clear tomorrow, leading to a very welcome mostly sunny afternoon.  Highs of 55-60 are likely.  I am forecasting 57 for Greater Lafayette with 55 north & as high as 60 south & southwest.

I was surprised that our record high for West Lafayette tomorrow is a rather low 57 set in 1968.  This is the lowest record high of the entire month of February or January with records back to 1879.

So, climatologically-speaking, February 2 tends to have a low, low probability of getting very warm.

A period of 30-40 mph gusts are possible amidst 15-25 mph winds Sunday.  Potential is there for some 40-50 mph gusts for a brief bit.

Winds greatly diminish tomorrow night with lows in the 30s to 40 a patchy to areas of dense fog develop.

Monday should turn overcast & the wind crank up to gusts of 30-40 mph at times late in the day with overall winds of 15-25 mph.  Highs should run 51-57 (coolest north).

Rain should increase late Monday evening & right through Monday night to Tuesday morning.  An isolated rumble of thunder is possible.

Most models paint generally 3 waves of precipitation Monday late evening-Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Some even have 4.

That said:

1.  MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY MORNING:  Rain & isolated rumble of thunder possible.

2.  TUESDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Rain, freezing & sleet with some minor accretions/accumulations possible.

3.  WEDNESDAY PM-NIGHT:  Freezing rain, sleet & snow with some minor accretions/accumulations possible.

A 4th round cannot completely be ruled out with some snow Thursday, but I feel more confident about 3 rounds than 4 at the moment.

The band of heaviest frozen precipition in any round is shaping up just northwest of our area with substantial accumulations of snow & ice possible.

However, we still look to get some with impacts in the area.  We will need to monitor the band of heaviest icy precipitation & snow closely, as it is looking to not be far away.

Some Ensemble members of various models bring the heaviest icy precipition & snow into our viewing area. 

We shall see how this evolves.

One fly in the ointment with this is the flooding rainfall Kentucky to West Virginia & the severe weather outbreak that will occur over the South Tuesday-Wednesday.  This could take away moisture that would bring down ice/snow amounts even if the heaviest sets up over our area. 

Looks like it could be two severe weather outbreaks with two waves of severe storms with unusually high dew points, warmth & instability given the deep-layer shear.  ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK upgrades are likely coming in future Storm Prediction Center outlooks.

Winds look gusty here 25-45 mph Wednesday night to part of Thursday with the cold air.

Melted snow/ice & rainfall amount to 0.75-1.25" for late Monday-evening to mid-week.

Cold weather by mid-week should moderate a bit by Friday.  We will go from 20s & teens to 30s.

Snow is possible late Friday to Friday night with minor accumulation possible with lows near 29 (with gusty winds).  This will be an Alberta Clipper system that will dive southeastward rapidly & be in & out.  However, given the dynamic support & brief shot of moderate snow is possible.

Gusty winds from the northwest of 25-45 mph are possible behind the system.

Another surge of cold air will follow.

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