February 1, 4 PM: Now What? Outlook Now to the End of February.....& to Late March

Here is the low-down on what to expect for the rest of the month & right through March.

Posted: Feb 1, 2019 2:38 PM
Updated: Feb 1, 2019 4:19 PM

FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY EVENING:

Freezing Fog to Fog, Low Clouds, Some Patchy Freezing Drizzle to Drizzle, Warming..............

16-24 temperatures never looked & felt so good!  Those are the readings as of 2:45 p.m., but there is little wind, so wind chills are not an issue & with the sun reflecting off of that snow pack, it doesn't feel half bad. 

After clear skies this evening, areas of freezing fog with heavy frost is likely tonight.  Low clouds will also develop with some patchy light freezing drizzle possible late.  Watch for the re-development of some slick spots on cleared roadways.

Temperatures will fall initially this evening (some places event tank due to lack of wind & the snow pack).  I think some random temperatures in rural areas could tank to single digits/0 briefly this evening. 

However, air should mix some & should begin to rise & then reach 18-31 north to south by early Saturday morning.  South-southwest wind will increase from 1-4 mph this evening & early tonight to 8-14 mph overnight to tomorrow morning.

Low cloud deck with areas of dense fog will occur morning to midday with some patches of freezing drizzle/drizzle.  There is a window for some of that fog to briefly mix out & visibilities improve in the early afternoon without drizzle.  However, mid to late afternoon & into tomorrow night should feature pretty widespread dense fog with the re-development of some patchy drizzle.

Temperatures should rise to 34-42 by evening with south-southwest to south winds 8-14 mph initially decreasing to 3-6 mph.

Visibility will be greatly reduced at times tomorrow & into tomorrow night at less than 0.5 mile.

SUNDAY MORNING-MONDAY EVENING:

Fog & Drizzle with Ice Jams, Cracks & Potholes to Early March-like Mild Rain & Gusty Winds (with Dense Fog & Steam Rolling Off Ice, Rivers, Streams, Lakes, Ponds & Over Large Snow Piles)...............

After fog & some drizzle Sunday morning, we may get some nice breaks in the low clouds Sunday afternoon with gusty south-southwest to southwest winds 15-30 mph for a while.  Highs of 47-56 are likely.  It will be a great day get the car to the car wash & get this salt, sand & dirt washed off!

Ice jams will be an issue, as well potential of breaking pipes as ice in some pipes suddenly melts.  Pot holes will pop up like weeds in a summer garden after a rain!  Expansive holes & large cracks may also pop up at railroad & roadway intersections.  Ice get stuck beneath some area bridges in big heaping masses.

Rivers, creeks & streams will be on the rise.

Temperatures will be fairly steady in the 40s Sunday night, followed by rain Monday with gusty southwest winds & highs 54-60.

Dense fog/steam may be hovering around rivers, streams, lakes, ponds & rivers with visibility near 0 as the moist, mild air flows over that ice.  Large snow piles will be steaming with fog rolling off of them!

Rainfall looks to total 0.20-0.60" by Monday evening.

FEBRUARY 6-20:

Blast of Cold & Potential of Ice & Multiple Winter Weather Systems Possible February 7-17............

Another cold front will pass Wednesday after 30s & dry weather Tuesday.  Some rain Wednesday may mix with a bit of ice & snow before ending.

However, things get interesting Thursday to early Friday of next week as Arctic air bleeds in & warm, moist air begins to flow up & over the top of it.

The potential is there for icing with sleet & freezing rain.  Some snow is also possible, but data definitely support more ice than snow.  Best potential of some snow would be in the far north or northwest with ice elsewhere.

Brisk north winds will bleed in the Arctic air with highs only in the teens to 20s Thursday & Friday.

Ensembles show 13 of 20 GEFS members with ice accumulations in the area late next week.  We will continue to monitor.

Another winter system could affect the area around February 12-13 & perhaps another February 16-17 & a clipper potentially around February 20.  Below normal temperatures look to dominate.  The bitter cold will be there & the subtropical jet will be active pumping moisture northward.  There are opportunities for the polar jet & subtropical jets to merge.  Several substantial winter storms here & overall in the eastern & northeastern U.S. are certainly on the table to February 20.

Some nights below zero are on the table, along wtih <-20 wind chills.  It does not look as bad as what we just had, however.  Still rough, but not like we had.

Florida & the Deep South has been spared the damaging brutal cold recently, however, I do think more & more of the cold will penetrate the Deep South & Florida in mid- to late-February.  Granted, we have had some chilly Florida days recently (60-degree high at Miami back on January 28), I think a hard freeze could occur all the way to Ocala, Florida with 40 (for low) to around Miami mid- to late-month. 

FEBRUARY 21-MARCH 12:

Colder, Snowier Pattern Will Dominate with Only a Few Spurts of Brief Warmth February 21-March 12..........

We should average 3-5 degrees below the normal mean temperature for February 1-28 & 5-7 degrees below the normal March 1-12 mean temperature.  So, colder pattern should dominate.  There will be spurts where it will briefly warm & thaw, but snow, ice & cold weather will continue to dominate our pattern.

Snowier than normal pattern will also dominate with potential of multiple episdes of some icing too to March.

MARCH 13-31:

Things Turn Around for Consistent Warmth............

I do think this cold, snowy, icy pattern will turn around with temperatures averaging above normal mid to late March.

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Another bitterly cold night ahead.
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