February 1, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Dense Freezing Fog & Regular Fog The Big Issue For Next 40 Hours

Black ice with freezing fog & some light freezing drizzle is possible tonight-tomorrow morning, followed by more just plain dense fog & patchy drizzle tomorrow-tomorrow night & Sunday morning.

Posted: Feb 1, 2019 9:45 PM
Updated: Feb 1, 2019 10:53 PM

Light freezing fog is already developing over the area with temperatures that have tanked to as low as the single digits (due to mostly clear skies & light to calm winds with snow pack).

Areas of fog will continue to expand & become locally-dense overnight to Saturday morning.  Areas of very low clouds with some light patchy freezing drizzle is also possible as temperatures rise into the teens & 20s.

Areas of freezing fog will transition to areas of fog tomorrow with gray skies & a few patches of drizzle.  Widespread dense fog is likely later tomorrow afternoon-evening & through tomorrow night with some drizzle.

The peak in the fog coverage & density should occur Saturday late afternoon through evening & into the night with widespread visibilities of 0.25 mile or less.

Temperatures will continue to rise to 30s to lower 40s by tomorrow evening, then rise to the mid 40s later tomorrow night.

Dense fog with some patchy drizzle will be with us to early Sunday morning, followed by some cloud breakage for some sun & 47-56 Sunday afternoon (with gusty south-southwest winds).

Monday will be rainy & windy with 54-60, followed by drier weather with 30s to 40 Tuesday.  Some rain ending as some rain/snow or snow is possible Wednesday.  After highs near 40 to the lower 40s, temperatures should fall into the 30s, then 20s as the cold air comes in.

We need to watch Thursday to Friday closely.

Arctic air will bleed in while front will stall to our south & a couple waves will form on that front & move northeastward.  Warm, moist air will ride up & over the front & may produce a bit of snow, but more sleet & freezing rain than anything for the area.

There are more questions than answers about how exactly this will set up, but we need to watch this closely.

Some data suggests two or three waves of icy precipitation with ice & even som eminor snowfall accumulations late next week.

Latest GEFS Ensembles show a very active pattern late next week to February 17 with multiple opportunities for snow & ice as Arctic air bleeds in.

The pattern is overall cold (couple brief spurts of sudden warmth...............key word is brief.............& sudden) & snowier than normal now through the early part of March.

Again, I think a greater penetration of cold air could get into the Deep South & Florida February & early March.

I think the entire Lower 48 could be quite a bit below normal for the first 12 days of March

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