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February 12, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest forecast update regarding opportunities for snowfall ahead...

Posted: Feb 12, 2021 12:32 PM
Updated: Feb 12, 2021 3:23 PM

The intense cold will be confined to the Plains today through early next week.  Record cold is likely Nebraska to Texas.  Here, I am doubting we will even drop below 0 & the Southeast U.S. to parts of the Northeast will be unaffected & actually be quite mild.  Beware the hype of us getting to -25 online & +20" snow next week. 

I actually saw a map shared online of the GFS-predicted 42" of snow in Oklahoma.  Again, it is raw model data being shared online.  No analysis or forecasting has been done. 

This would be the fourth time this winter that the massive snow storm to blizzard word has been floated by social media for Indiana & about the third time the -20s actual air temperatures have been floating around for our area & Indiana.  Beware just where you get you weather information online!  This only gets worse every year.

My motto is that you better make 99.9% sure that you are indeed getting +6" of snow for your area 5 days out if you post it.  If you are not 99.9% sure, don't post.  I only post model data that I agree with after going through the forecasting & analysis for sure!

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Well, after one of the latest occurrences of our first low below 10 & a mild winter with below normal snowfall, winter arrived at the very end of January!  We will go down as keeping below normal temperatures for about three weeks.  Good news is that it doesn't look brutal, but just steady consistent cold until we really warm up with a thaw & melt-down after February 20 as rain arrives.

Overall, it will warm up more & more late February & through early March with more above normal temperatures.  However, when you get these Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, the effects usually last 30-60 days.  The event occurred in two waves early & mid January, which made me think it would be late January & mid-February for cold. 

Amidst the much warmer pattern, cold intrusions may try to tease us a bit to early March at times as the effects linger a hair.  However, the tongues of cold will be fighting warmer, wetter factors pushing against them like the MJO, PNA, EPO, NAO & the continuing solid traditional La Nina.

On a side note, what is impressive to me is the record-breaking blocking occurring over Greenland, which typically means massive U.S. Arctic outbreak when all of the other factors fall into play.  Even more impressive is that the warmer players on the court are out-playing it by keeping the extreme cold confined to the Plains with a lack of movement eastward, it just oozes southward with no where else to go.  That is why Texas will be hit so hard by the cold.

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It is another day we are warmer than raw model guidance with a 26 on our WLFI sensor as of 12:30 p.m. & it is 25 at the airport. 

Temperatures are 22-30 as of 12:30 p.m. across the viewing area, so highs of 25-33 are expected, up from the 22-29 highs expected in lastnight's outlook.

After a few localized dustings & coatings of snow lastnight (trace to 0.5", mostly north), we are partly to mostly cloudy with northing more than a few flurries in our northwest.

Light snow will increase after 11 p.m. tonight, expanding south & southeastward to eastward from the northwest & west.

This will be with us with varying intensity Saturday until tapering by evening.

A total of 1-3" is expected along north of a Rainsville to Greater Lafayette to Burlington to Peru line.  The higher end of that range will tend to occur north of a Kentland to Lake Cicott to Denver line.

Less than 1" is expected southeast of there.

Scattered lake effect snow showers & flurries are expected Sunday with local dustings/coatings mainly in our north half.

Then, snow overspreads the area again Sunday night as the next system approaches.

Sunday will be a blustery, very cold day with 10-16 early, then temperatures falling to 7-10 in the afternoon.

However, it appears that numbers will level off around 2-7 Sunday night, then rise to 8-14 & not drop below 0.

Wind chills may still run -20 to -10 with north winds to 30 mph.

It appears that two main rounds of accumulating snowfall will pass Sunday-Monday-Monday night.

One will overspread the area Sunday evening-night & taper Monday AM.

Another will overspread the area late Monday afternoon & last through Monday night.

Strong, gusty northeast to north-northeast winds will accompany both waves of snow with gusts to 32 mph.

This will lead to the potential of blowing & drifting snow & reduced visibilities.

The heaviest precipitation with both should stay southeast of the area, but each round could dump a couple to a few inches of snow.  The two waves added up, it appears that our far southern areas have the best chance of +6".

This will add up, especially given our snow depth of 3-11" (southwest to northwest) & 4-8" much of the area already.

Be prepared for travel impacts Sunday night-Monday to Monday night due to snow-covered roadways & blowing & drifting snow.

Temperatures will run in the single digits to teens Sunday night, then teens to 20s Monday, but wind chills will run below zero to single digits.

It looks like all snow here.  Another ice storm is expected from Texas to the Northeast U.S.

It will actually be a situation where it is rain & 40s in parts of eastern Maine & 30-32 with ice well inland & in the mid 20s in central Texas next week!

Some scattered snow showers are possible Tuesday with highs in the 20s.  Wednesday looks partly cloudy with highs in the 20s.

Another system is expected Thursday with highs mid 20s to lower 30s.  Ice will get close or into the viewing area with rain in Ohio.  A band of substantial icing is possible from Arkansas to Ontario.  We will need to monitor that closely.  At this point, going with some minor accumulating snow is possible here, but thinking winds may gust to 30 mph from the northeast, then north, leading to blowing & drifting snow.

Some light rain & drizzle is possible by Saturday, February 20 with strong southwest winds to 35 mph as strong, strong warm air advection takes over, signaling an end to the colder, snowy pattern...........

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD MORE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER.........

I am getting a bit concerned about flooding risk in the February 24-28 time period (flash to then river flooding).

It is a good set-up for a heavy rainfall episode there with a wet, warm MJO pattern & the effects of the SSWE becoming less & less.

With a big thaw & melt with much warmer temperatures & the potential of an extended period of rainfall with 1-3" combined with ice jam risk, that period of time needs to be monitored closely.

My analog data has been very consistent with this much higher ice & snow risk with this above normal precipitation in mid-February & it has also been very consistent with wet, wet weather & flooding risk in late February.  Now, some model data is jumping on that wagon.

It would be a situation of some flash flooding of creeks & streams & ponding followed by substantial rises in area rivers.

The good news is that there is good consensus that there will be a lack of decent precipitation after this event right up to around March 7.  Then, another round of rainfall is possible.

Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 56°
Kokomo
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 47°
Rensselaer
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 50°
Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 56°
Danville
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 54°
Frankfort
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 50°
Frankfort
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 50°
Monticello
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 49°
Monticello
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 49°
Logansport
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 46°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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