Here are the fall trends overall..................I will get an official forecast out by early September for Fall-Winter-Spring 2018-19. We will then have a final update in late October for the rest of Fall to Winter-Spring.
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Analog analysis & latest long-range models imply a warm early half of September with many days above normal (some potentially very warm/hot), followed by a cooler latter half with many days below normal. Drier early half & wetter second half equal normal precipitation overall to slightly below normal, per this analysis.
October warm to start with lots of ups & downs temperature-wise due to intrusions of unseasonably cold air in the Plains & heat in the Southeast is being implied. Out temperatures (between the warmth & cold) should even out near normal, it appears. This could mean a wetter & stormier-than-normal October overall with the temperature gradient from Iowa to Kentucky quite stout with Iowa -3 degrees from normal & Kentucky +3 degrees for the month.
November picks up where October left off with big swings in temperature with our area averaging near normal. Rainfall looks above normal with the potential of above-average storminess should this pattern shake out. Could be a set-up where Iowa to northwest Illinois averages -3 degrees from normal & Kentucky +3 degrees again.
Warm start to December should then trend to much colder weather with time............see Winter-Early Spring outlook (link at the end of this post).
ANALOG (SIMILAR YEARS) ANOMALIES (TEMPERATURE & RAIN/MELTED PRECIPITATION DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL [IF ANY SHOWN]):
SEPTEMBER 2018:
Temperature:
Normal to slightly above normal
Precipitation:
Normal to slightly below normal
October 2018:
Temperature:
Precipitation:
November 2018:
Temperature:
Precipitation:
Here are the winter-early spring trends!
Here are the winter-early spring 2018-19 analog trends: http://www.wlfi.com/content/news/August-17-931-PM-Second-Installment-of-the-Fall-Winter-Spring-Trends-491154301.html
