5:45 p.m. Weather Update

Scattered showers & storms continue to bubble up in the area, but the main line is well east of us. Kept isolated severe risk in forecast for a couple of reasons.

Posted: Jul. 20, 2018 5:29 PM
Updated: Jul. 20, 2018 5:57 PM

I extended risk of an isolated severe storm until 7 p.m.

The main line is well east of us now.  Only Fulton & Howard counties reported any wind damage/power outages from that line as it popped over our northwestern counties around midday & tracked over the northern half, then really intensified in the east. 

Right now, we have numerous scattered showers & storms in the area that are moving eastward.

Here is why the isolated severe risk will go until 7 p.m.

A core of elevated risk of an isolated tornado is up.  This is the "non-tornado supercell parameter".  Anything thing greater than 1 signifies increasing risk of a brief tornado not from a supercell or the mesocyclone of a supercell, but from a random individual storm.

The cold air aloft & vorticity will be driving this potential for the next 1.5 hours.

Bulk Richardson Number is running 50-80 over the area.  Now, high number nearer to & above 80 favor multi-cell clusters of storms.  Numbers close 50 actually favor some supercell structure to a few storms. 

Combine that with the NSTP mentioned above with still up to 1500 J/kg of surface CAPE & "isolated severe storm" is still reasonable for a while longer.

Article Comments

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Cool Trend Continues with Rain Returning Today.
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