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December 9, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Dec 9, 2019 2:07 PM
Updated: Dec 9, 2019 4:45 PM

It is breezy to windy, drizzly & mild as of 4:30 p.m. (temperatures 48-55), but some new showers with the drizzle should form as the cold front approaches.

One the front passes, temperatures will crash quickly to 20-25 overnight.

Any lingering moisture on pavement will freeze.

A few isolated to spotty flurries are possible with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph at times.

Wind chills will bottom out at 3-12.

With mostly cloudy skies & a couple isolated flurries tomorrow, temperatures should be steady near 25 with northwest winds becoming west at 20-30 mph early, then 13-25 in the afternoon.

With partly cloudy to mostly clear skies & west winds 10-20 mph tomorrow night, lows of 13-19 are likely with wind chills -2 to 7.

Winds should be west-southwest at 10-20 mph on Wednesday with increasing clouds & highs 27-32.  Wind chills should still run 16-22 even at peak heating in the afternoon.

We cloud up & warm up Thursday-Saturday. 

The bulk of the rain will stay southeast of us Friday, but a few showers are possible here.  Scattered showers are possible Saturday before ending as a few snow showers Sunday.

Interestingly, as narrow corridor of Arctic air bleeds down the east slops of the Appalachians & then gets trapped, a narrow band of ice storm is possible from North Carolina to Pennsylvania to end the week.

We need to watch this system for early next week. 

Timing is in question, as is track & how quickly or if it evolves into Nor'Easter on the East Coast.

If Arctic high is too strong, it will shove it south of our area & we will get nothing.

It will be a blustery, cold system nonetheless.

There is a system coming from the Texas Panhandle, no doubt, but ensembles (running model over & over & over in one run to view outcomes) vary greatly on key components of the storm.

Agreement & consensus is lacking.

GEFS Ensembles for early next week:

Rain with 40s & gusty winds is likely following system.

Risk of a couple systems near & after Christmas to New Years bringing ice/snow will continue to go up.

Pattern is good for it.

Systems will tend to drop out of Washington & British Columbia in the Polar jet, then phase with the Subtropical jet over Texas.

Organized,  substantial storms should develop.

This, with  reservoir of cold bleeding in over the eastern U.S. with Arctic Highs centering over the Great Lakes & Ontario.

Questions still abound on exact track of systems given Arctic surface high (but also Southeast upper ridge with surface Bermude-type high) & how quickly the storms evolve into Nor'Easters on the East Coast.

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