December 5, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest low-down on weather ups & downs ahead.

Posted: Dec 5, 2019 3:13 PM
Updated: Dec 5, 2019 5:11 PM

Clouds increase through this evening & tonight, followed by a cloudy Friday morning.  An isolated shower or two is possible.  Then, skies should clear in the afternoon with gusty north to north-northeast winds up to 35 mph.

Highs will run near 40 to the mid 40s.

Wind will diminish tomorrow night.  With a mostly clear sky, heavy frost should develop with lows in the lower to middle 20s.

Saturday looks good with sunshine, followed by increasing clouds in the PM with highs in the 40s.  It will be a bit breezy with south-southeast 11-22 mph.

We become overcast by Sunday with strong southwest winds +30 mph & highs 48-54 with showers developing. 

It does look pretty rainy Sunday night through Monday with the heaviest rainfall occurring with potential of isolated thunder Monday late afternoon-evening.

Highs will run in the 50s with south to southwest winds gusting +30 mph.

Strongest winds of the storm system will occur late Monday night to Tuesday morning with +40 mph gusts from the northwest possible as temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.

Rain may end as some snow Tuesday morning.  Any accumulation that would occur looks localized & very minor at this point. 

A few flurries may continue at times Tuesday afternoon with mostly cloudy skies.

Temperatures will fall quickly all day to 22 by 4 p.m. with wind chills at that point down to near 7.

With lows 5-11 by early Wednesday morning, wind chills may drop to as low as -10.

Watch the warmth, then the brief shot of bitter cold Tuesday-Wednesday (-32 actual air temperature over snow pack underneath Arctic High is possible in Minnesota):

Cold shot is gone in the blink of an eye.  Extremes indeed.

By Thursday, much of the area will rise above freezing by early afternoon.

We should hit our highs of 37-43 Thursday evening with overcast skies.

Some patchy freezing drizzle to drizzle & then mixed with a few spotty showers is possible.  Areas of fog are possible as well as warmer, moist air rides over the sudden cold, cold ground from the brief bitter cold snap.

Rain is possible next Friday, followed by a even more potent, longer-lasting bitter cold snap.

Strong winds are possible with gusts +35 mph & a period of snow on the back edge of the rainfall.  Wind chills to -12 are possible by next late Saturday night-Sunday morning (December 14-15).

Any accumulation looks very minor at this point.

Now, if the system tracks farther south & keep the cold in longer, then this rain would be ice & snow.  At this point, looks wetter than icy though.  We will monitor.

The cold, cold weather hangs on with highs in the teens & 20s & lows at 0 to the single digits December 15-20.

A set-up suitable for winter storms begins to take shape.

One system is forecast to develop, but track south of our area & then evolve into a Nor'Easter on the East Coast.

However, this could bring icing & snow to the Southeast U.S & then snow to the Mid-Atlantic & coastal Northeast.  It is actually a good set-up for an ice/sleet storm from Atlanta to Charlotte & Raleigh (even Columbia, South Carolina) as Arctic air is wedged again the western slopes of the Appalachians.

This would tend to be an bigger Boston & Nantucket rather than New York City snowstorm.

The same large area of bitterly cold Arctic high that may keep us dry will have two centers:  one here & one over northern New England.

That northern New England center will be key to the wedge & potential icing/sleet event with it driving the Arctic air southward.

This would all occur December 17-20.

IF the Arctic high is farther north, then the storm could track farther northward & bring snow to the area.  That is not the case yet, but we will monitor.

Another storm may track through the Deep South with rain around December 20-21, but we look dry with temperatures warming up to the 30s to 40s.

It appears that another Arctic front should slide through around December 22 here.

This will usher in another round of bitter cold.

There are opportunities for winter weather events in our area post-Christmas.

There is one near December 26-27.  However, like we have been saying, there is that trend for "snow piracy" to develop.

Yes, it snows here & accumulates, but Nor'Easter re-develops on the East Coast & steals the dynamics & snowfall away from us before we have a chance to see a big snow.

Again, pattern is very conducive to winter weather events. 

This is a projection for around December 31.

We will watch how quickly this potential storm evolves into Nor'Easter. 

Arctic high follows this potential storm with lows to -15 possible in first few days of January.

Temperatures look to moderate a bit, then a significant cold wave after snow &/or ice could occur by January 15.

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