SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

December 3, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update on the pattern now to the first week of January!

Posted: Dec 3, 2020 3:43 PM
Updated: Dec 3, 2020 9:39 PM

Highs yesterday reached 40-47 after 16-23 in the morning.

After 19-26 this morning, highs reached 41-50.

Friday looks good with southwest wind 10-20 mph & partly cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny.  Highs should run 46-52 (around 51 Greater Lafayette).

Wind should turn to the north-northwest (at 10-20 mph) Saturday with partly to mostly cloudy skies (greatest amount of clouds northeast & east) & highs 40-46 (around 44 Greater Lafayette).

With north-northwest winds Sunday at 15-25 mph, highs of 38-44 are likely (42 Greater Lafayette).  With partly to mostly cloudy skies, a few isolated rain/snow showers are possible.

40-45 is likely Monday, followed by 45-50 Tuesday & 47-53 Wednesday, then 51-57 Thursday with increasing southwest winds to 15-30 mph Thursday.

Next decent potential of some rainfall is late Friday-Friday night.  Highs Friday should run 55-60 with strong south-southwest winds to 35 mph.

Looks like there may be MARGINAL RISK of severe along the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas to Louisiana & Mississippi, otherwise, not severe weather risk is expected at this point (unless more CAPE or unstable airmass can develop).

Rainfall totals do not look overly-impressive here at this point with 0.15-0.32".

System around December 14-15 may bring showers here with 40s & 50s with MARGINAL parameters southeastern Louisiana, central & southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia to the Florida Panhandle.

This system could actually end as a bit of snow here as we fall to 31-33 with strong northwest winds up to 45 mph.

After brief cool snap with highs in the 30s & 40s (lows upper teens to lower 20s), we warm back to the 40s & 50s.

Multiple storm systems pass through our area December 19-January 4.  A total of 1.25-3.5" of rainfall is possible for the entire viewing area during this time.

Over that 16-day period, a total of 4 storm systems may pivot through the area with surges of warmth, strong winds & rainfall with even some t'storms.  Any snowfall with these looks miniscule at this point & would be confined with a brief bout or two on the back sides of the systems with 30s.

The main corridor of severe weather risk is across the southern U.S. with these systems. 

Preliminary analysis continues to show a substantial to significant storm system in the December 23-26 time frame.

It could be a very snowy Christmas time in the Rockies to High & Northern Plains with a lot of rainfall southeastern Canada through the Midwest to the South with unseasonable warm (especially southeastern Canada & Northeast with temperatures POTENTIALLY 30 degrees above normal).

Here, we may see rainfall, some t'storms, lots of wind & warm temperatures to the 50s & 60s.  We could near record warmth a time or two in this stretch (including the December 23-26 potential system).

The next 16 days is the game & I have to examine all the players on the court mathematically to determine the outcome.  It is like if I had to sit & forecast the winner of the next Purdue basketball game.  Who & what we be the dominate influencers?  How can I use past data in these situations to determine what player combo gives me a certain result.  This is very similar.  When I analyze the players the end result of the game is overall warm & wetter.

The 5 main players or starters on the team for overall warmer, wetter regime ahead:

Player #1 -PNA:

Player #2 +NAO & AO:

(Second graphic courtesy of NC State University & the National Geographic Society):

Player #3  +EPO:

Player #4 MJO influence back with most-likely Phase 5 to 6 occurring.

Rainfall anomalies in each phase:

Player #5 Continued traditional La Nina strengthening.

So, lets combine all of these players to determine the overall trend that we usually see with such a set-up in the winter:

Temperature anomalies:

Precipitation anomalies:

Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 41°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 33°
Rensselaer
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 32°
Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Danville
Partly Cloudy
42° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 40°
Frankfort
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 34°
Frankfort
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 34°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 35°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 35°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 30°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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Unassigned0433

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