December 3, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data in, here is your latest update.

Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:12 PM
Updated: Dec 3, 2019 10:52 PM

We had a a few sleet/rain showers with the cold front this afternoon.

We saw a sleet shower with a temperature of 40 here at the station.  How?

Layer of dry air was the key.

At the station temperature was 40 with a dew point of 26.  The Lafayette forecast sounding shows dew point of 14 with temperature of 36 around 3500'.

Some snow began to fall with saturation noted above 10,000, then melt around 6000'.

As this rain fell through dry air, part of it evaporated or dried up, which is a cooling process.

This cooled the layer to 32 not too far off the ground.  Rain drops then froze into ice pellets or sleet.

This precipitation made it to the ground due to freezing levels from the evaporative cooling pretty close to the surface, though some melted into rain drops with the initial surface temperature of 40. 

We cooled to 35 with passage of quick sleet/rain shower.  With sun this evening, we rebounded to 39.

Highs today ran 36-43 with breezy to windy conditions from the southwest.  A few isolated to spotty rain/sleet showers passed with Pacific cold front.

Clearing followed by evening.

Windy, but mostly sunny weather will be with a good chunk of the area Wednesday.  However, there will be cloudiness that moves into our northeastern to eastern counties in the PM to tomorrow night.

Northwest winds may gust to 38 mph at times. 

Highs will run 41-48 northeast to southwest after morning lows near 30.  Wind chills early will run near 18 with pretty brisk southwest winds at 15-25 mph.

After near 29 tomorrow night with a breeze, wind should be light early Thursday, followed by gusts increasing to 26 mph.  Mostly sunny skies will feature increasing clouds late.

Highs of 44-50 are likely.

Skies should turn mostly cloudy to cloudy Thursday night, followed by a mostly cloudy to cloudy Friday morning with a couple of isolated showers possible.

Lows will run 37-40 early (with strong southwest to west winds at 20-32 mph), followed by clearing trend Friday PM (west to northwest wind 15-30 mph) with highs 37-45.  Lows of 25-30 are likely Friday night.

Winds should pick up Saturday with increasing clouds.

As for the Very Merry Main Street Parade for Christmas looks dry.

Temperature should average in the lower 40s with wind chills in the lower 30s with south wind at 15-25 mph.

With lots of clouds Sunday, winds should be strong with gusts to 40 mph from the southwest.

Rain will develop with highs 48-53.

Rain is likely Monday.  Heaviest should fall Monday afternoon, it appears.  Isolated rumble of thunder is possible with highs around 50 to the 50s.

Southwest wind may gust to 32 mph.

Rain may end as some snow Tuesday morning.  Temperatures should fall Tuesday afternoon from 35 in the morning to 31 in the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday night-Tuesday morning looks to feature the highest winds with gusts +40 mph possible (from the north-northwest).

0.80-1.50" of rainfall is possible.

Temperatures rebound next week a bit, followed by wind & rainfall..............very heavy rainfall could fall again in the Lower Ohio Valley........then the change..........

Mid-December on will feature progressively colder, more wintry pattern with some overnight lows single digits to zero with opportunities for accumulating wintry precipitation.

There are 5 lobes of colder air that may pass through with below normal temperatures around December 15-January 2.

2 winter storm events are possible over this 18-day period as two Texas Panhandle systems may track northeastward.

How much impact to our area will be determined by position of multiple Arctic highs & how quickly systems transition to Nor'Easters over the Northeast.

However, there will also be a couple random spurts of warmth that surge in seemingly out of no where in this extreme winter.

It may rain with howling south to southwest winds & 45 or 50 after say a 0 to 5 temperature a day or two before.

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