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December 3, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Colder with Snow Potential

Cold pattern with opportunities for snow is ahead.

Posted: Dec. 3, 2018 10:19 AM
Updated: Dec. 3, 2018 11:46 AM

A mix of rain & snow showers & drizzle & flurries has & continues to be over the area. 

It is snowing at Crawfordsville with 32, I have light snow with 34 at the house with no accumulation, while Frankfort has light rain & 37.  Drizzle is being reported at Grissom with 35, while Logansport has light rain & 34.  Monticello has light snow & 33 & Rensselaer is also reported light snow with 33.  A light dusing of up to 0.2" has been reported in Newton & Jasper counties.

There may be localized grass whitenings/dustings of trace-0.4" on grassy & elevated surfaces today from more snow than rain at times.  Other times, it will be more rain than snow.  Roads will just be wet.  Other than reductions in visibility, no travel issues are expected.

Some icy spots may begin to develop after 6 p.m. tonight as temperatures drop to & below 32.

Scattered snow showers are likely tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night to Wednesday as late as midday.

These snow showers will deposit quick dustings & accumulations to 0.5, even 0.7" at times with melting in-between snow showers.

Some icy spots on roads may develop this evening-tonight-tomorrow morning & again Wednesday morning as temperatures drop into the 20s.  During the day, brief icy spots are possible in snow showers. 

Both days look mostly cloudy with highs near 31 & lows near 26.

Accumulations, on average, will tend to run 1" or less over the area tonight-Wednesday morning.  Some isolated 1-2" amounts are possible in the north.

A wave of snow is likely Thursday. 1" or less is currently expected, owing to its fast movement.  If the system will slow down,then 1-2" will be more likely.

A large winter storm is still on track for a large portion of the country Thursday-Tuesday. 

The ensembles are trending south of us with this system, but there are a couple of members that do bring a decent snow to the area.  This is several days out & even though ensemble agreement is currently for a more southern track that would keep much of the snow south of us, I am not sold on that idea yet.

I have seen multiple times where these systems shift northward.  A way this sould happen is if Bermuda high has more influence off the southeast coast of the U.S. by pushing it back to the north & northwest.  Also, the strong Arctic high needs to set up a little farther north than Iowa & northern Illinois for us to get a snow from the system.  This Arctic high are snow eaters as they bleed very dry air in.

I always remember back near New Years 1998-99 (granted this was 19 years ago & weather technology is much different than what it is now).  Even one day before a big winter storm, it was projected that a band of 12-15" of snow would fall south of the I-70 corridor.  I remember seeing this report thinking that we would have a foot of snow January 1-2 at the house in southwestern Indiana.

Well, it began as a sleet storm, then transitioned to freezing rain.  The next morning I woke up to 34 with rain, however, some limbs were down from the heavy ice accumulation overnight.  Temperatures rose from 0 with some snow still on the ground January 1 to 34 on the morning of January 2 with a transition to rain.  Meanwhile, the band of +12" ended up falling north of I-74 in our area!

So, bottom line is that we just have to watch it & wait & see.  This is a great set-up for an Inside Runner storm with significant snowfall in the area...........IF the Bermuda high can push it back northwest & the Arctic high is not so aggressive, building southward to Iowa & northern Illinois.

This is just the model run over & over to see possible outcomes:

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Isolated storms Friday.
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