Blizzard is underway in the Plains, ice storm underway in the Northeast & severe weather with Tornado Warnings in parts of the South. Flash Flood Watch is up fort the Lower Ohio Valley. High Wind Warnings are up in parts of Tennessee with Wind Advisories in western North Carolina.
There have already been two tornado reports in Mississippi & preliminary confirmed tornado count from severe weather over Missouri to Oklahoma & Arkansas last evening is up to 3.
The unusual warmth rolls on with highs today 59-63 over the entire viewing area with rainfall totals since last night of 0.40-0.90" generally.
The Purdue Airport hit 61, while the WLFI site & Purdue Ag Farm site reached 60.
This is well below the record high of 68 set in 1984, however.
It is extremely cold over Alaska to northwestern Canada to far eastern Siberia. Temperatures are up to 45 degrees below normal, knocking temperatures down to near -70.
Another area of extreme cold is over central Siberia to far northern China.
Here, the Rockies are up to 15 degrees below normal, but note the warmth that has emerged in the central & eastern U.S. & over east-central Canada!
The Polar Vortex is tightly wound near the North Pole......EXCEPT for the disjunct, weaker segment that has broken off with that extreme cold.
This is an example of a detatched Polar Vortex, which is occurring from all of Alaska to Siberia & northern China (2013-14 good example between tight vortex in in mid-November, then the big "Polar Vortex" outbreak with extreme cold in early January):
The current sea surface temperature anomalies are very much like the 2013-14 winter.
Note the warm water around Alaska & around Greenland, which would tend to promote ridging there. Warm water in the Arctic should promote polar plunges southward with a trend toward troughiness in the central & Eastern U.S.
Also note the very warm water off the East Coast & in the Gulf, which does tend to give you temperature & wind extremes when you have a cold set-up.
December 2019 vs. December 2013:
Granted, our winter will be more like 2018-19 than 2013-14 (that winter was brutal), but it will have solid elements of both. The ridge south of Alaska & over Greenland is not as extreme as 2013-14. However, extreme temperature flip-flops like last winter with above normal snowfall here still seem likely. I just didn't expect extremes of temperature like recently to last more than a day or two before tanking again.
This warmth is not sustainable........this is not 2011-12..........or 1877-78 or 1982-83, 1997-98 or 2015-16 strong El Ninos, nor is it a strong La Nina........
The cold anomalies we saw in November will return.
This has been an extreme Fall to early Winter (historic record cold & early snow to record warmth & unusually mostly sunny, warm weather) & the rest of Winter looks extreme with very impressive temperature swings.
First significant cold wave near January 10-12 period arrives:
Bitterly cold air will arrive in January, especially after the 10th or 12th. Colder weather will establish itself to start 2020 but it will really get nasty with time. Some substantial outbreaks may occur in the early half of February. There may also be a nice spring-like warm surge suddenly as we end January, which will lead to lots of pot holes, ice jams, fog, wind, some flooding & random MARGINAL RISK day.
Like 2014 & 2019, latter February may warm up with a very spring-like end.
Really, 3 significant cold events are seen January 10-12 to January 29 with temperatures potentially to -20.
Snapshot of projected mid-January highs:
Snapshot of a late January day with highs near -3 (may be conservative............-11 for high if we do get a deep snow pack during the worst of the cold snaps).
Sudden, seemingly overnight spring begins to approach at the end of January before brutal February cold arrives.
Much, much milder for a small bit before we pay again.
Bitter cold is split between Greenland & Alaska to British Columbia with strong, tightening Polar Vortex retreat.
Widespread rainfall & isolated thunder will occur tonight. Even an embedded line of gusty thunder may reach our far southeast & xtend from there southward through Kentucky, as it pivots northeastward.
0.40-0.90" rain already may reach TOTALS of 1.25-2.25" by tomorrow morning (so another 0.70 to +1" possible tonight).
Blizzard.....Part II.......roars into Wisconsin & Minnesota for tomorrow.
Our widespread rainfall departs early Monday, followed by a scattered of wind-driven snow showers & squalls with gusts +35 mph from the west.
It is back to reality!
Temperatures will fall from initial 34-40 readings to 29-33 by afternoon (with wind chills 13-20).
Snow showers with strong winds (turning more to the northwest) will continue into Tuesday with highs near 33.
1" or less of accumulation is possible.
Winds will diminish Tuesday night (New Year's Eve) with snow showers exiting & lows near 22.
New Year's Day looks bright with mostly sunny skies & highs 36-42.
With a southwest wind we will not cool much Wednesday night with lows only at 30-35.
Thursday looks mostly cloudy with a few spotty showers & 45-52, followed by periods of rainfall Thursday night-Friday with 40s to low 50s with southeast to east winds.
Temperatures fall quickly Friday night to 30 with rain ending as snow with howling northwest winds with gusts +35 mph at times.
Another 0.75-1.50" of rainfall is possible.
In terms of snowfall at the end, any accumulation looks very minor.
A few flurries & snow showers are possible next Saturday with highs near 35.
A strong Alberta clipper with Arctic front should pass Sunday of next weekend with strong southwest winds sharply going northwest. They may howl up to 40 mph.
A few rain & snow showers are possible, followed by snow showers with potential of very minor accumulation.
After a high near 42, highs in the teens are likely afterward. Single digit lows are possible.
At this point, next system to watch for substantial to significant wintry precipitation would be around January 10, preceding a bitter Arctic outbreak.