December 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

From patchy mix to wind-driven rain to Arctic blast.....it is a changing forecast.

Posted: Dec 22, 2018 8:08 PM
Updated: Dec 23, 2018 12:14 AM

Highs today ran 34-41 with breezy conditions & variable clouds.  Normal is 34-37 for the time of year.

Some patches of drizzle to freezing drizzle & fine, grainy light snow are possible tonight.  Liquid equivalents will run trace-0.01" & some areas will see nothing at all. 

A few flurries & spotty snow showers are possible tomorrow with lots of clouds, followed by clearing late.  It will be rather breezy at times with highs 36-39 after 28-32 in the morning.

Note system on Christmas Eve to Christmas early morning with accumulating snowfall to our northwest & a band of some light freezing rain & sleet with a few flakes coming in around dawn.  Temperatures at that time will be running 28-30 over the viewing area.

Any accumulating snowfall Sunday-Sunday night shoulf remain east & southeast of the area.  A southern disturbance will merge with our clipper to make a fairly large area of accumulating snowfall from Kentucky to New York & Massachusetts.  The heart of the accumulation will be in the central Appalachians.

Now back to that Christmas system.

Euro is on with morning icy mix & snow to rain/mix to p.m. scattered rain.

The Canadian model is on-board with this:

Below is the lower res U.S. GFS-FV3 model that shows a similar situation.

The potential is there for very minor snow/ice accumulation could occur in the morning before it melts rapidly & we see highs 36-40 with some chilly showers.

The door is still not closed on at least a little bit of snow on Christmas!

Two strong, moisture-laden storm systems are ahead:  one after Christmas & another around New Years.

One is pretty much a complete rain-maker for us.  The New Year's one is in question on what sort of precipitation it will bring as colder air comes in.

So, the first significant is progged to move through our area late Wednesday-Friday morning.  The latest analysis continues to suggest that the heaviest rain will fall Thursday afternoon.  Rainfall totals of 0.70-1.20" are likely.  Gusty winds to 35 mph are also likely with the system.

Surge of warmth will accompany the system with highs 50-55 Thursday.

Temperatures will fall Friday.  After 45-50 in the morning, temperature should fall to 36-40 by late afternoon.  A few flurries are possible Friday night with lows in the 20s.

Wow!  Impressive moisture transport northward!  To have +3.5" rainfall in central Kansas & Nebraska as we approach January is rare!

The second system should affect us around New Years.  You can see it gathering in New Mexico & Texas & slowly moving northeastward.  It is unclear what the main precipitation type will be with that system, but cold air will be bleeding in making it more than likely either icy mix &/or snow.  Note the Arctic high centered over Minnesota to Manitoba & Ontario.  Bitterly cold air will be bleeding into the area.

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