SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

December 21, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update regarding the Christmas to January 10 forecast.

Posted: Dec 21, 2020 1:06 PM
Updated: Dec 21, 2020 4:01 PM

With a few spotty showers around part of today so far temperatures are mild at 41-50 as of 1:30 p.m.

Skies may clear for a while, followed by more clouds & a few spotty showers by late afternoon-evening.

Winds will continue to increase & turn to the northwest & gust 35-50 mph. 

Highs today should reach 45-54 for yet another mild day!  Normal highs for the viewing area are 33-37.

Lows by early Tuesday morning will drop to 30-35, but winds (still gusting to 35 mph even later tonight) will result in wind chills near 20 to the 20s.

You will likely not be able to see the Saturn-Jupiter alignment tonight & first Christmas Star in 800 years tonight.

Tomorrow night looks more likely, but through a milky veil of thickening high cirrostratus clouds.

Skies should clear Tuesday with time with winds down to 5-15 mph from the northwest, then 5-10 mph.

However, Tuesday night, winds will go back to the southwest & gust to 33 mph.

After highs 40-47 over the viewing area northeast to southewest Tuesday, temperatures will only fall to 35-40 Tuesday night then even rise some.

We should turn mostly cloudy then cloudy Wednesday with howling southwest to south-southwest winds 20-35 mph with gusts 40-50 mph.

Rain moves in in the p.m.

Strong cold front passes Wednesday night.  Rain may end as a few snow flurries & snow showers.  Northwest winds may gust 35-50 mph as temperatures fall from 50s Wednesday to 20s Wednesday night-Thursday a.m.

I have received many emails about snowstorm on Christmas Eve.  This will not occur.  There is no snowstorm for Christmas.

Could we eek out a dusting to coating for some in the viewing area?  It is not out of the realm of possibility, but no substantial to big snow.

We had our one opportunity for snow before January & that occurred.  We now look to the start of January for accumulating snowfall.

Thursday looks windy & cold with a couple flurries in the northeast early, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny.  Highs will only run 25-31 with wind chills 11-21.

Christmas Day looks mostly sunny & dry with less wind.  However, it will be cold.  Highs of 24-30 are expected after Christmas morning lows of 10-15 with wind chills 0-7.

This cold will be very short-lived however. 

By Friday evening, the wind will be from the southwest again & lows will only drop to 15-20 Friday night, then rise to 36-42 Saturday with southwest winds to 30 mph.

Rain moves in Sunday with 40s to 50s with howling southwest to south-southwest winds to 45 mph.

Sunday night looks mild & windy with rain & 40s to 50s.

Rain may end as a few flurries Monday with temperatures falling into the 30s with strong north winds to 40 mph.

More consistently cold weather will arrive to start January & last through the first week.

There are multiple opportunities for some accumulating snowfall January 1-10.  We may very well end up with accumulating snowfall on or around New Year's Day.

The coldest air of the winter (possible for the rest of the winter at night) so far is possible during this time with lows around 0 to 6 around January 7.

I still think January will be the snowiest month of the October-April 2020-21 snow season with near normal total amounts of 6-12" over the viewing area for the month.

Mid to late January shows overall above normal temperatures.

Mid to late January precipitation is above normal.

It looks like an early onset of spring & the growing season.  Although this sets the stage for damage from a frost & freeze, I do not foresee the record freeze like we had in May that wiped out nearly all of the fruit crops in the area & caused tree foliage damage all of our shade & forest trees.

Summer-like heat looks to get in here pretty early with bouts by early May.

Rainfall looks above normal for Spring 2021, however the bulk of it will fall in March, April to early May, then decrease, resulting in another planting window for farmers.

It looks like one April window & then a nice late May window.

Severe weather occurrence looks above normal with the most active severe weather spring since 2010-2011 to even 1999.

There is a higher risk of tornadoes (highest since 2010-11) with the dryline forced farther eastward.

Hotter than normal summer with upper ridge domination is expected with our first 100 since 2012.

Looks like a dry summer with potential of widespread drought.

There is higher than normal potential of a Serial Derecho, however.

Higher subsoil moisture from a wetter late winter to spring will help.  Also, the more of the crops that can get planted in a narrow April window the better (to become established & handle this heat & drought).

Early onset of spring will help get soils warming up, even despite the above normal rainfall.

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Big weather change ahead!!
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