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December 21, 2 PM: Astronomical Winter Begins

Astronomical Winter begins this evening with a seasonable weekend.

Posted: Dec 21, 2018 1:32 PM
Updated: Dec 21, 2018 3:54 PM

Astromonical winter begins at 5:23 p.m this evening!  This short daylength is just over 9 hours.  It is all uphill from here on out as days get longer, however!

NAM 3km model projection this afternoon..........light snow with 32-34.

The reality........just a few spits of sprinkles/flurries with 34-37.

With an upper trough & some cold air aloft, bit perplexed as to why reaility does not look a bit more like the NAM model.

I am still going to keep some light snow in the forecast for this evening-tonight, mainly over our northeastern areas.  This is a combinations of the back edge of our storm system & lake effect. 

Some flurries are possible elsewhere.

Less than 0.3" of accumulation is possible over our northeastern areas.

Clipper with some light snow is possible Saturday night-Sunday morning.  Any accumulation looks to run under 0.5".

Also, watch the disturbance with burst of heavier snow move through Kansas, then Missouri & gell with our weak clipper, creating widespread snow from Kentucky to Ohio & eastward.

It could be that this is the disturbance that the models may be honing in on that could bring snow on Christmas Day here.

It appears that models are trying to decipher the two systems & figure out where they will track.

So, that all said........

If this is indeed the case then we have the Saturday evening-Sunday morning clipper & then that system for Christmas tracks south of us bringing snow from Kansas to Kentucky to Ohio & Pennsylvania on Sunday-Sunday night.

If you go by this, barring any changes to this scenario, Monday looks dry with partly cloudy skies & 30s, followed by partly cloudy skies Christmas, then clouding up Wednesday.  Highs will run in the 30s to 40s. 

For now, I would will like to KEEP 35% potential of rain/snow for Christmas Day due to at least some uncertainty with this scenario.  Again, with so many moving small parts, models continue to struggle with placement of any of these clippers/distrubances.  The Euro still has a clipper on Christmas with rain/snow to snow.

Rain is likely Thursday-Thursday night, followed by a potential New Years system. 

The Canadian model below keeps it east of us, as do many, but it is still a long way out.

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