December 2, 10 PM Long Ranger

Here is a look at the trends December 17 to March

Posted: Dec 2, 2019 9:33 PM
Updated: Dec 2, 2019 9:48 PM

Highs today were chilly in the 30s with a brisk northwest wind keeping wind chills in the 20s all day.

This was made with a dig into the latest run of 140 years of analog data & global model ensembles.

I just broke it down in quick, short bits here:

December midpoint to January 2 looks colder than normal overall.

However, there will be a couple/few instances of brief, but impressive temperature fluctuation.

Cold will dominate much more than the warmth.

There are 5 plunges of bitterly cold air seen in-between rises.  Each may see temperature drop to single digits to even a bit below zero.

There looks to be a lot of wind, too.

There are around 4 systems that may produce some form of impactful wintry precipitation.

At this point, around December 29 is the most promising for significant wintry precipitation.  We will monitor.

For this period, trend is still to keep the heaviest snowfall band Kansas to Missouri to northwestern Illinois, then a bit less as Nor'Easters steal some of the dynamics & moisture as they re-develop on the East Coast.

However, our snowfall still looks above normal.

"Polar Vortex" brutal cold event may arrive in early & possibly mid-January amidst winter storms.

Sudden thaw shows up late month with fog, rain, wind, ice jams & thunderstorms.

Temperatures should run below normal & snowfall above normal.

Another such event may occur in early February. 

Below normal temperatures & above normal snowfall (overall) sets up for early half of February.

Warm, wet weather shows up late February with flooding risk.

March looks colder, wetter & snowier than normal.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Rain to snow.....
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