December 17, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Windy weather with rain & snow ahead.

Posted: Dec 17, 2018 3:17 PM
Updated: Dec 17, 2018 3:49 PM

Tonight looks to turn clear with heavy frost & some patchy fog developing.  Watch for a slick spot or two on bridges & overspasses as some frost & black ice forms.

Lows will run largely in the lower 20s with a calm wind.

Some increasing high & mid clouds will occur tomorrow with the sunshine.  It looks like a nice day with only a light southeast to south wind & highs 38-44.

After 20s with some high & mid clouds tomorrow night, Wednesday will feature a gradual increase in clouds with it turning mostly cloudy by evening.  Winds will be southerly with highs 44-49.

The MJO continues its influence on U.S. weather with mildness.  However, the intense clusters of heavy rain in the Indian Ocean area are moving east & ridging will move in, signaling a trend to colder weather ahead.

Rain is likely Thursday with breezy conditions (northeast wind) & rain is also likely Friday, but it may end as a period of wind-driven snow.  Wind will increase to gusts of 40 mph from the north on Friday.  Temperatures will fall from upper 30s in the morning to lower 30s by afternoon.

If there is any snowfall accumulation, it would be very minor.

There is considerable disagreement about the forecast of these two clipper Sunday night-Tuesday.

This is the Euro model.  It shows a couple of clippers with potential of some snow Sunday night-Monday morning & then Christmas Day Tuesday.

I still remember the surprise Christmas 2009 snow (one of the winters in my analogs that matches this one) when it looked like 1" or less with a shortwave & we received 5" at West Lafayette.

Clipper details can be difficult to forecast out, as they move so quickly.  We will continue to monitor.

Clipper #1:

Clipper #2:

Colder trend should continue to New Years with some rain & snow in the December 27-31 period.

There is still very good analog data that suggests bitter cold & lots of snow coming in January.  The analog years of 2002-03, 2009-10 all show this.  Even the late 70s in low solar situations like ours were El Nino Modoki winters with similar parameters setting up.  One thing I have noticed in the past couple of years is that the atmosphere doesn't quite behave exactly like it used to with this massive CO2 build-up.  When it should be very, very cold, it is not quite so much.

Low solar, El Nino Modoki, positive PNA, negative EPO & negative NAO & AO all spell cold & snowy for the winter.

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Windy and cooler Monday
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