December 18, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest data regarding the Christmas forecast.

Posted: Dec 18, 2018 8:39 PM
Updated: Dec 18, 2018 9:59 PM

After heavy frost with some freezing fog this morning & lows 20-26.................

Highs today reached 39-45 with just a few high, thin wispy cirrus clouds & lots of sun.

With the lack of wind & all of the sunshine, it felt pretty good.

Tomorrow will be the last decent day for a while.  With sunshine & increasing/thickening high/mid clouds, highs should reach 47-52 over the viewing area after frost & 26-29 in the morning.  Southerly winds will run 9-13 mph tomorrow until late in the day when they may actually increase to 13-22 mph for a bit.

We should go overcast tomorrow night with southerly winds & lows 40-44.  A few showers are possible late.

Periodic rain is likely Thursday with south-southwest 11-16 mph)& highs 45-48.  As winds go light to calm for a few hours in the evening the periodic rain may be mixed with drizzle & developing areas of dense fog.

However, later Thursday evening to early Thursday night, the wind will increase, dispersing the fog.  Winds may gust to 30 mph as they suddenly shift to the northeast.

Rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast Friday morning as temperatures fall to near 33 with winds turning to the north-northeast & then north with gusts 35-40 mph.

Snow will then taper by early afternoon with north winds decreasing to gusts of 30 mph with mostly cloudy skies & temperatures steady around 32.

Most ensembles show rain changing to a period of snow Friday before ending.  It appears that any accumulation would be very minor & be at or less than 0.4" (dusting) on grassy & elevated surfaces.

The Euro model & my analog data continue to show a clipper with snow on Christmas after a few snow showers Sunday.  The Euro shows a solid, accumulating snowfall event of +3" & it has been consistently aggressive with this.  It sort of depicts a merger with a southern disturbance to enhance the snowfall.  The CMC Canadian model is on-board with accumulating snowfall, too with +1". 

The JMA Japanese model is on-board with snowfall on Christmas too!  It paints 0.10-0.25" of liquid & temperatures at freezing with plenty cold air aloft for flakes.

The U.S. Navy model or NOGAPS brings heavier liquid like the Euro with 0.25-0.60" with it being all snow as clipper merges with a developing southern system (like the Euro).

The German DWD-ICON model depicts clipper on December 23 similar to where the Euro has it developing that time & shows a southern disturbance.  So, it is very similar to the Euro with the set-up for Christmas snow here. 

Oddly, the slew of typical NOAA U.S. models have nothing.......................not even a flake!  I am trying to figure out why my analogs & all of these models from all over the world say white Christmas & our own operational U.S. models have nothing.

I even went to the experimential 30km FIM model, which is in development from NOAA & it has not even a feature of a clipper system.  It has high pressure & mostly sunny skies on Christmas.

We just need to wait & see how this evolves.  It is still a week out, but I keep coming up with snow for Christmas. 

Next Wednesday-Friday a mix of some snow, sleet & freezing rain is possible initially, followed by a change-over to all rain as temperatures warm from the 20s & 30s to the 40s.

On the tail end of that system, one, possibly two, systems may bring mixed precipitation & snow around New Years. 

Arctic high pressure should follow with cold weather.

There are still good signs of a weakening of the Polar Vortex & an intrusion of bitterly cold air arriving early in January with lows perhaps well below zero at times.

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