December 15, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update

Some rain today for part of the area will give way to drier weather Sunday.

Posted: Dec 15, 2018 10:35 AM
Updated: Dec 15, 2018 1:54 PM

Heavy rain is falling over the southern half to two-thirds of Indiana this morning.

Some dry air has managed to bleed in from Ontario, scouring out much of the low clouds, fog & drizzle over the area.

Some of this rain will sneak into the southeastern half of the viewing area today & tonight.  It may get as far north as Pine Village to Lafayette to Delphi, Logansport & Peru.

Elsewhere, even areas that are getting some sun in the far northwest this morning, will cloud over today.

Winds will be brisk from the northeast much of the day.

Highs today will run 42-46 as there is really no source for really cold air, despite this storm track & northeast to north wind.  However, temperatures may fall to 39-42 later today.

Some patchy to areas of fog may occur tonight-Sunday morning.

Clouds breakage will result in a partly cloudy sky Sunday, but note the mostly sunny skies Monday after a cold front passes Sunday night.

Clouds will increase again Tuesday.

After 36-41 Monday, highs will run 37-43 Tuesday (lows in the 20s).

Skies look mostly overcast Wednesday to Friday night.

Rainy, breezy Thursday will give way to changeover to some snow & strong winds Thursday night-Friday.  Any snow still looks very minor.  Winds may gust to 40 mph (from the northwest to north-northwest) on the backside of the system, however Thursday night-Friday.

A succession of 4 storm systems should pass December 23-30.  Any one of them may bring some snow to the area.

The key is how quickly the cold air gets in & what the strength of it will be.  There is a lack of continuity among data regarding the intensity of the cold around & following Christmas. 

I am still trending colder with more mixed precipitation & snow than anything.

We have gone into Phase 3-4 of the MJO, which is a warm, wet phase for us.

However, note how the projection getting to Christmas & beyond is Phase 5-6-7-8.

This is very warm & rather wet for us.  However, other factors will weigh this down some.  Yes, it will be mild late week, but not blazing 50s & 60s warmth like you would expect.

Note how once we rotate through this phase, we got to the colder Phase 7-8.  It will trend wetter in 7, then drier in 8.  This signals a southern storm pattern conducive to snows here, followed by a clipper pattern as we go through January.  Much of January is in the cold 7-8 phase.

This is based on the thinking that the MJO will continue to exert influence on our weather.  Sometimes it has little influence if it is weak or the other players on the field are stronger & overtake it's influence.

Given the cold parameters like the stratospheric warming, weakening Polar Vortex, negative EPO, negative QBO & AMO, negative NAO/AO, positive PNA all point to below normal temperatures in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. ahead.  This cold pattern should carry through February (thinking that is when cold will peak), even into March. 

I still think we could be cold to late March-April, then flash spring sets in.

Precipitation in MJO phase in November-December-January:

Temperature in MJO phases in November-December-January:

Positive PNA pattern (image courtesy of North Carolina State Climate Office):

Negative EPO pattern (image courtesy of Stephen Strum of WeatherOps):

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Barry remnants skim by, then intense heat wave sets in.
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