SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

December 13, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

We are just about the December midpoint, so what is ahead for the rest of December through next summer?

Posted: Dec 13, 2020 12:37 PM
Updated: Dec 13, 2020 1:02 PM

There will be a lot of mostly cloudy to cloudy periods this upcoming week.

It looks dry & rather seasonable.

Only time for precipitation risk is Wednesday morning. 

This currently is the only time to early January (right now) with the potential of some minor accumulating snowfall for part of the area.  It is still not a certainty that the snow will move this far to the north, but it is worthy of 25% potential right now.

Further data will be analyzed to determine if the potential needs to be increased.  Just know at this moment that this is the best potential of any snow to early January unless there is a radical data change.

A couple systems of rain dominate next weekend & then around Christmas with mild temperatures.

This Wednesday system looks to become a significant snow for the Northeast U.S.

Some analogs shows high probability of +2" snow here........

Closest match to this system per CIPS analog is the 2007 system & you can see the snowfall totals.

You have to take ALL of the data & ALL of the analysis to come up with a forecast.  You take the model data, current surface data & how that applies to how past model runs behaved in a similar situation, model bias & then dig into analog.  It is then you have to filter analog data for legitimacy to the current set-up.

Raw analog shows this 2007 systems as this best match, but I am not siding with it much yet.  You can see how 2-8" fell in the viewing area in the match.  I never take just raw data to completely come up with a forecast.  You have to blend, evaluate & smooth & use climatology.

I like just keeping 25% in right now & then we can re-evaluate tonight & through tomorrow & Tuesday for less chance or higher chance.

But this may be the best we can do up to January 1.

January still looks to feature above normal precipitation.

Snowfall actually trends near normal with 6-12" total for the area with potential of some ice.

January continues to trend warmer than normal.

However, early January features below normal temperatures.

February & March feature above normal precipitation with higher than normal flood risk & severe weather risk.

Snowfall looks below normal both months, but there is elevated risk of an icing event or ice storm in February.

February & March show early spring & above normal temperatures.

Summer 2021 still looks hotter than normal with first 100 in the viewing area since 2012. 

Summer 2021 looks drier than normal overall with potential of drought.  There is a higher than normal risk of a Serial Derecho in the "Ring of Fire" per analog analysis.

September look warmer & drier than normal, but October appears cooler & wetter than normal.

It looks like another very active hurricane season, similar to the 2004-06 period.

Lafayette
Cloudy
48° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 45°
Kokomo
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 35°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Lafayette
Cloudy
48° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 45°
Danville
Cloudy
44° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 41°
Frankfort
Cloudy
43° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 37°
Frankfort
Cloudy
43° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 37°
Monticello
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 38°
Monticello
Mostly Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 38°
Logansport
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 35°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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