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December 12, 9:30 AM Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Dec 12, 2018 8:22 AM
Updated: Dec 12, 2018 9:19 AM

How 'bout an early Friday Feedback question? 

I enjoyed the article on past ice storms in our area.  I remember the 1991 storm very well.  Seems like we get quite a bit of ice around here.  Does it happen here a lot compared to other areas around?

Kenny S., Frankfort

Thank you for the question Kenny! 

Changnon & Karl did a study on this & found that freezing rain occurred on an average of 5 days a year in our area 1948-2000.  This is part of a belt of higher freezing rain incidence that extends from central Illinoit to New England.  New England had the greatest number of days with freezing rain reported.

Going further, Changnon studiend the 1932-2001 data & found that our area averages 9-12 hours of freezing rain per year.

In terms of more modern data, 1979-2016, Chris McCray's work found that we average generally 6-10 hours of freezing rain per year.  This is 2-3 days less than the annual freezing rain hours 1932-2001.

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One wave of life with this clipper has come through early this morning with a few spotty light freezing rain showers/patchy freezing drizzle.

Now, skies should be partly to mostly cloudy for the morning & into the afternoon as cold front passes with nothing more than an isolated shower or two (as the winds kick up).  Highs should run near 41.

Some scattered flurries & snow showers are possible, mainly in the north, by evening as temperatures fall late afternoon-evening into the 30s.

Showery weather will develop Thursday, which may begin as a very brief period of freezing rain showers.

Friday looks showery, instead of just a solid, steady rain.

Winds will be pretty gusty from the southeast Thursday-Friday with highs in the 41-46 range.

Rain may end briefly as snow Friday night.

The weekend looks dry with highs near 41, followed by a few rain/snow showers Monday with 30s.

After a couple of gusty clippers with a few snow/rain showers around December 19-22 period, there continues to show this potential merger of clipper & southern developing "Inside Runner" type storm around Christmas.

There are more question than answers, but if this scenario does indeed come to fruition, it would mean rain December 23 to a wind-driven snowstorm with big travel impacts late December 23-24. 

Arctic air would spill in behind it.

Regardless, I think we are looking at active weather near Christmas with Arctic air to follow. 

With the Arctic air spilling deep into the South, this scenario would not surprise me.

The potential is there for a White Christmas as far south as Dallas, Austin, southern Louisiana & Mississippi to Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte to even Kentucky, Virginia & North Carolina.  That storm could blow up into a big Nor'Easter with major travel implications around Decemver 26-27.

Meanwhile, we will have the Arctic high from Alabama to Wisconsin with below zero low temperatures if we can get a decent snow pack

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