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December 12, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on potential winter weather events down the road.

Posted: Dec 12, 2019 9:04 PM
Updated: Dec 12, 2019 11:04 PM

It was much warmer today compared to yesterday, but gusts up to 32 mph led to it feeling much cooler than the actual air temperatures.

Friday will run in the 40s with lots of clouds & just a few isolated showers possible.  It will not be as windy as today, but still a bit breezy with winds 10-22 mph from the south to southeast.

Scattered rain/snow is likely Saturday.

It may end as all snow showers Saturday night.

Some localized very minor accumulation cannot completely be ruled out as temperatures fall from 35-40 Saturday to the 20s quickly Saturday night.

Given that, watch for a couple slick spots as any moisture freezes on roadways & any localized snow put a thin film down.

Here comes the development of the Texas Panhandle storm.

It will drop southward through the Rockies.  The topographical anchor Colorado to the Texas Panhandle will cause cyclogenesis or storm formation there.

Two waves of wintry precipitation should develop.  One north of the warm front in an area of lift & the other with the heart of the storm system.

GEFS Ensembles show definite storm system, but question about precipitation type & duration of any given type of precipitation.

Whether it is mostly snow for the area, snow/ice or snow/ice rain or mostly ice & rain & only a bit of snow is in question.

GEFS still has heaviest band mostly northwest of our area, but still at least some snowfall accumulation here.

Trend is still to bring some icing in here with period of freezing rain.

Key for track is positions of Arctic high & Bermuda-type high.

Canadian model (GDPS) has ice & snow here.  Euro (ECMWF) is all snow as is the German (ICON) model.  They all differ in the battle of the Arctic & Bermuda highs.  The Japanese model seems to align with the Canadian with ice & snow here & no change-over to rain.

December 31, 2007-January 1, 2008 is a good analog thus far for snow (heavier northwest & much less south & southeast).

December 3, 1991 is a good analog match for the freezing rain in our area.

Shot of bitterly cold air should come in following the storm.

Should we lay down a nice snow pack, below 0 would occur.

It should sharply warm up next Thursday suddenly to near 35, but more wintry precipitation may occur late Friday as we cool to around 30.

Article Comments

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