December 10, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest weather low-down......

Posted: Dec 10, 2019 12:26 PM
Updated: Dec 10, 2019 2:14 PM

It was a bitterly cold morning with wind chills to -1 with gusty winds.  Winds gusted to as high as 41 mph last night with some flurries at times.

Minimum wind chills:

-1 Morocco

0 Fowler; Kentland Municipal Airport

2 Delphi; Galveston Airport

3 Crawfordsville Municipal Airport; Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport

4 Logansport-Cass County Airport; Monticello-White County Airport; Kokomo Municipal Airport; Covington; Flora; Crawfordsville

5 Purdue University Airport; Grissom ARB; Peru Municipal Airport; Attica

6 Frankfort Municipal Airport

10 Rochester-Fulton County Airport

Peak gusts:

41 mph Fowler

40 mph 5 E Michigantown; Lafayette-Veteran's Memorial/US 52

39 mph Round Grove

38 mph Purdue University Airport; Concord

37 mph Frankfort Municipal Airport; 4 SW Rossville

35 mph Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport; Delphi; Attica; Morocco; Covington; Grissom ARB; Logansport-Cass County Airport

34 mph Remington I-65/US 24; 6 NE Rensselaer; Waynetown

32 mph Rochester-Fulton County Airport; 5 SE Pine Village; 4 NE Monon

33 mph Peru Municipal Airport; Galveston Airport; Kentland Municipal Airport

31 mph Monticello-White County Airport; Winamac

30 mph Crawfordsville Municipal Airport; Crawfordsville; 3 N Rensselaer

29 mph Darlington

We have a nice hole in the cloudiness between the stratocumulus/stratus northeast & east of the area & the high & mid-level cloud deck south of our area & then the stratocumulus area in Iowa.

Some of the high/mid cloudiness may  sneak in at times from the southwest today-this evening, so will go with "mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies" wording.

It will remain bitter with temperatures in the 20s, but the wind will gradually subside.

Little, compact, fast-moving upper disturbance should pass tomorrow mid-morning to midday.

It may produce a period of snow showers that may dust & coat things with trace to 0.3" in some places after quickly clouding up.

Clearing should follow with highs near 30 to the lower 30s with west wind 10-15 mph.  This, after 12-19 tonight with wind chills to near 0 with just a few clouds.

Thursday looks breezy from the southwest, turning mostly cloudy & warmer.  Highs should run 35-40 with southwest winds 15-25 mph making it feel more like the 20s to 30.

A few showers are possible Friday with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies & highs in the 40s.

Most of the rainfall will stay southeast & east of our area with that band of icing from cold air trapped for a while northern South Carolina to Pennsylvania.

Some showers are possible Saturday with 40s.

This may end as a few snow showers Saturday night-Sunday.

Sunday's highs will run in the lower 30s with strong northwest winds to +30 mph.

There is the system to watch for early next week.

It is a Monday-Tuesday ice/snow scenario with gusty winds, especially on the last quarter of the storm & beyond with gusts +35 mph.

Track, ice & snow amounts & dominant precipitation type are in question.

There is a substantial storm system & a band near or in our area will get a winter storm, but it is unclear on who will bear the brunt as the track so far out is in question.

Bitterly cold air with howling winds should follow though.

GEFS Ensembles or possible outcomes:

CIPS Analog (75th Percentile):

The days just before Christmas need to be monitored closely as well as another storm comes out of Texas.

Ice & snow could occur here, but it is unclear on the exact storm track, which will determine amounts, dominant precipitation type, etc.

Strong winds may occur with this one as well, specifically in the last quarter of the storm system & beyond that.

Bitterly cold air should follow after temperatures warm up a bit.

There will be another winter weather, Panhandle system to watch between Christmas Day & New Years, as well.

Again, it is a good pattern for Texas Panhandle storms that develop & track through the Ohio Valley.

Tracks & precipitation amounts will be determined here by position of Arctic high, exact position of far Southeast upper ridge & thus surface Bermuda-type high & how quickly our storm systems develop into Nor'Easters on the East Coast.

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Warmer Temps and Multiple Rounds of Rain Ahead
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