SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

December 1, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the drier weather ahead for a while & what's driving the current weather pattern.

Posted: Dec 1, 2020 4:06 PM
Updated: Dec 1, 2020 9:51 PM

Check out the shot of the lake effect cloudiness band over the area late this morning!

These clouds will erode away this evening, followed by clear skies, then some patchy high to mid clouds coming in later tonight.

1" or less of snow occurred over the area, mainly east of US 421, where slick roads were reported lastnight to early this morning.

2.5" fell at Knox in Starke County, while Plymouth in Marshall County measured 0.4", showing the erratic totals associated with largely lake effect snow showers rather than a lot of system snow.  That tended to occur more south & east & northeast of the area. 

Up to 10" was reported in north-central & northeast Ohio & even in western Ohio 4-6" amounts occurred.

Meanwhile, widespread wind damage occurred D.C. to Maine with eastern Pennsylvania & New Jersey particularly hard hit.  One tornado has been confirmed so far in the Northeast, an EF1 in metro Philadephia.

Pattern is pretty dry & tranquil for the next 7 days.  An isolated shower or two is possible with a cold front Friday.  Storm of rain & some snow will wrap up in the Northeast Sunday-Monday, so it will become windy, but temperatures will be pretty seasonable to slightly-above normal.

You will notice more in the way of clouds Thursday & Friday (mostly cloudy) after partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies off/on Wednesday.  Saturday-Tuesday looks partly to mostly cloudy off/on as cumulus/stratocumulus/stratus pivot in from the northwest & west-northwest.

The Plains will be remarkably warm.  The Southeast will be colder than normal, especially in the Deep South to Florida.

+EPO, -NAO, +PNA, +AO working together produces this interesting result of a pattern with near/record warmth in Canada & quite chilly (though not record-breaking) across the South to parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

In a sampling, you can see how the positive PNA is exterting its influence over the neutral MJO & even the strengthening traditional La Nina.

That warmth in Canada & the northern Plains (50s in Alberta & 32 Yellowknife, NWT!) will be increased by the players working together (EPO, NAO, PNA).  MJO, La Nina sort of taking a back seat or headed to the bench with less influence over the next 7 days.

Note how we go negative PNA mid-December, which is warmer regime for the South & Mid-Atlantic.  This with that Phase 3-4-5 MJO & La Nina muscle flexing means warmer & wetter weather ahead there & here.

Our current +PNA:

We should be back in the 50s by the end of next week.

Again, we should become warmer & wetter mid to late December.  A few near/record warm days & nights are possible along with a day or two with severe weather risk.  It will be windy to very windy on multiple days.

Could we squeeze in a brief wet bit of snow?  We could, but any snow on the ground would be minor & short-lived & thoughts are still that snowfall will be below normal in December.  Warmer pattern will tend to dominate.

Mid- to late-December temperature anomalies:

End of December to early January features some of that very warm weather :

Nearer-term 7-day forecast:

Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 41°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 33°
Rensselaer
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 31°
Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
46° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 41°
Danville
Partly Cloudy
42° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 40°
Frankfort
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 34°
Frankfort
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 34°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 35°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 35°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 30°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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Spencer216930
Jennings214344
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Fountain201042
Starke187250
Owen181953
Fulton177937
Jay177528
Carroll176218
Perry173335
Orange170950
Rush164322
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Ohio52911
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