December 1, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest forecast low-down!

Posted: Dec 1, 2019 4:43 PM
Updated: Dec 1, 2019 10:40 PM

November 2019 will go down as colder & snowier than normal, but with below normal precipitation overall.

WLFI, West Lafayette, observation site daily & monthly numbers are below.

There was just one mostly sunny day the entire month.

18 of the 31 days were mostly cloudy to cloudy.

The average daily wind gust was around 26 mph.

There were 6 consecutive days that had snow on the ground around the site in some depth or coverage; quite a feat for November...............let alone before November 17.

Randy Rogers sent me this from his records on the east side of Frankfort (told me he thinks he forgot to put a few of the rain days down on the calendar):

3.5" of snow on the 11th and that was the total of snow for the month.

(We had ..75" of snow on Oct. 31st too).

I show .20" on Saturday, the 23rd.

I show 1.05" on Wednesday, the 27th.

Then .60" yesterday.

After rain & gusts to 35 mph from the east, it became showery yesterday with continued chilly temperatures.

Showers & even a few embedded storms occurred late evening-overnight with temperatures rising over part of the area with a period of fog.

Then, the dry slot came in this morning with some clearing, followed by the low clouds pivoting back in.

Today, has been a day of rain/snow showers & temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 with a west to northwest wind to 30 mph.  Strongest winds with Wind Advisory have been west & southwest of our area.

Highs early this morning were 41-55 over the viewing area.

Scattered rain/snow will go to largely scattered snow tonight.  Some localized areas may pick up some very minor accumulation on grassy & elevate surfaces with lows 31-34.

Watch for a slick spot or two on bridges & overpasses given some areas reaching 32.

Wind will pick up from the northwest to north with gusts 30-40 mph at times.

Monday is the coldest day of the next 7 with some spotty snow & rain/snow with gusty north winds +30 mph at times.  Highs will only run in the 30s.

Skies may clear some Monday night with the wind diminishing, allowing for lows of 19-27.  Areas that clear the most for the longest period of time will be the coldest with heavy frost.

40s will dominate the forecast with the next good potential of widespread rainfall coming later next Sunday-Monday.

A windy Tuesday with a couple of isolated showers will give way to the brightest day of the week:  Wednesday.  Lack of wind & sun with 40s that day should make for decent hump day.

Warmer, but windy & gray weather returns Thursday-Friday.  A few isolated showers are possible Friday.

Saturday looks like the second brightest day of the next 7 with partly cloudy skies.

Sunday looks to turn gray & windy with warmer temperatures, but rain developing, mainly midday & onward.

Heaviest rainfall should pass Monday-Monday night as storm has potential to deepen rapidly over the area.

Strong winds with +40 mph gusts are possible.

A total of 0.80-1.60" rainfall is possible Sunday-Tuesday AM.

Rain may end as a bit of snow Tuesday morning.

Temperatures should near 50 to the 50s, then chill to highs in the 30s Tuesday.

Strong winds should continue even on Tuesday.

Mild weather Sunday-Monday night (but Arctic air looming northwest of our area):

December 11-13 will feature dry, but warming weather from the 30s to 40s for highs with lows in the 20s.

A round of rain, wind & mild weather should occur around December 14-15.

We may see 50 to the 50s here, but temperatures from North Carolina to eastern Canada may reach 20-25 degrees above normal!

However, note the Arctic air looming northwest of our area.

Progressively colder pattern will spill in with a rapid stair-step fashion after December 15-16.

This will occur as Arctic high strengthens & builds southward with time:

Late month snow depths show the storm track.............

Storms come out of Washington & British Columbia, dive into the Texas Panhandle, re-organize in that topographical anchor & with phasing of polar & subtropical jets.

Then, storms tend to track northeastward.

Current analysis suggests heaviest snowfall from Kansas to northern Illinois to Michigan (less Illinois to Michigan due to "snow piracy" [see below]).

Note how this model does have a 0.5-2.5" snow pack (from southeast to northwest) down near Christmas in our area.

With the track of a few storms' centers closer to our area, it would put potential of icy mixed precipitation in here & not just plain snow.

We will monitor.

End of December snow depths show more of the same with more snow pack in mid-Atlantic to New England as our storms form Nor'Easters on the East Coast. 

Note the split flow in the West & the phasing in the Texas Panhandle.

We will wait & see if the storm track shifts a bit more to the Southeast to keep us in all snow in late December.

Regardless, developing Nor'Easters may cut some of our moisture, knocking mixed precipitation & snowfall totals down, even over northern Illinois & Michigan.

I like to call this "snow piracy".

Given the extremes, it seem likely that after potential lows of near 0 at times, that we will see a random, sudden, massive warm-up to 50 with rain before tanking again in one day or two in latter December (with rain).  This may result in random flash freezing & the rain may end as some snow.

Overall, just be prepared for much colder & wintry regime as we get into late December & the start of January.

The worst of the cold may occur in early to mid January with a couple of "Polar Vortex" type events, followed by a massive thaw, but another such cold outbreak in early February.  Latter February looks warm, but March looks cold.

Snowfall still looks above normal late December to mid-February overall, then a lull, then above normal snowfall in March.

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