Chad's Garden Blogs Start Today..........A Look at El Nino Modoki & Its Effects On Severe Weather Risk Overall

From Chad's Garden to a look at El Nino Modoki severe effects, it is all right here.

Posted: Aug 28, 2018 11:53 PM
Updated: Aug 29, 2018 12:23 AM

I will be starting "Chad's Garden" today with our first blog posting.  Look for that later this afternoon.  We will cover lots & lots of topics & how garden activites are progress year-round in weekly posts.  Thank you all!  -Chad

El Nino tends to diminish severe weather in the Plains, while La Nina increases it.  The La Nina severe weather bump occurs as far north as southern Illinois.  El Nino severe weather bumps tend to occur in Florida (winter months) & in California (winter months).

Here, the difference in severe weather occurrence between overall El Nino & La Nina is slightly less in El Nino & slightly more in La Ninas.

Obviously there are other factors at play & the strength of one or the other dictates how much of a difference in severe weather occurrence (in comparison to normal) occurs.

Tornado season peaks earlier in La Ninas & later in El Ninos in the U.S. overall.

Moderate La Ninas give us our best potential for tornado increase in Indiana & in the viewing areas as a whole.

Notice how most of the long-track tornadoes that are strong to violent (with fatalities produced) are blue, meaning they occurred in La Nina years.

This this winter to spring will feature El Nino Modoki, which is similar but different than a typical El Nino.

Normal El Nino:

El Nino Modoki:

Modoki brings tends to bring warm, dry weather to the West overall for winter & wetter, cold weather to the East with a later start to spring.

MODOKIs WINTER SINCE 1925:

1926-27

1950-51

1957-58

1963-64

1968-69

1977-78

1986-87

1991-92

1994-95

2002-03

2004-05

2009-10

2013-14

It terms of severe weather for a Modoki spring, the effects are similar to that of a regular El Nino in that some suppression of severe weather occurs.

All El Nino Modoki winters & springs saw a lower than normal frequency of severe weather.

Of course, other elements are at play, but this is the overall trend of Modoki years.  How much of the severe weather frequency is affected is also affected by how strong the Modoki is at any given time.

2009-10 winter-spring was a Modoki.  It was a very lackluster spring for severe weather & the least inactive since 1970.  However, the summer was insanely active!  Once we pulled away from the Modoki effects, it became a summer dominated by very oppressive humidity, & very consistent "Ring of Fire" pattern with flooding rainfall & many severe weather outbreaks including one derecho.  Transitioning to La Nina, 2010-11 was active with severe weather.

The 1991-92 Modoki winter-spring saw a late start to severe weather.  The first severe weather event did not occur until June 17.

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