August 9, 5:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest regarding rainfall & severe weather potential now to early September.

Posted: Aug 9, 2019 4:02 PM
Updated: Aug 9, 2019 5:39 PM

Highs yesterday reached 84-91, hottest over the driest soils in the area.

Heat indices ran as high as 95.

Hit or miss storms dropped some rainfall.  The greatest amounts were just north of I-74 in Warren & Fountain counties with 1-2".  0.77" was reported from Covington U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Gage.

Areas that received 0.10" or more of rainfall are in the images below.

We remain at 1.29" of total rainfall since June 20 here at WLFI.

Many areas are still very dry with topsoil moisture deficits, but the subsoil still has good moisture from wet winter & spring to very early summer.

A few select locations in the area are not too dry, however, as you can see in the map below.

Compare that to where we were the week of June 2:

Tonight looks crisp, cool & starry with 51-56 for lows, followed by 83-86 with partly cloudy skies (but still low humidity) for tomorrow (with a southeast to east-southeast wind at 5-12 mph).

Saturday night does not look as cool with 60-65, followed by 87-90 Sunday with partly cloudy skies.

A few scattered storms are possible Sunday PM as much higher humidity arrives, driving heat indices up to 90-96.

Monday looks hot & muggy with highs 89-92 with heat indices 95-102 as dew points surge into the 70s with strong south-southwest winds at 15-30 mph.

Storms will develop with the potential of a complex of storms with a squall line impacting the entire viewing area afternoon-evening.

Severe weather is possible with main threat being wind with second risk of an isolated brief, embedded tornado or two.  It definitely looks ENHANCED RISK-worthy right now, but we will continue to monitor.  I think SPC will have at least SLIGHT RISK up in their Saturday update for Monday with potential of eventually upgrading to ENHANCED by Sunday.

Needed locally-heavy rainfall is possible with some areas receiving a quick +1.75".

Cross-section of projected troposphere below shows quite strong wind fields throughout with core of particularly high winds in the mid-levels with some dry air.  This would enhance the wind risk. 

The directional shear is focused in the lowest 4000', which bring about isolated brief tornado risk.

So, this all signals an organized, long-lived, widespread wind threat from a squall line with a few embedded bows for enhanced wind & LEWPs & nodes in the line with enhanced brief tornado risk.

Steep lapse rates & strongly-unstable environment suggest deep convection or storm action blowing up.

We will monitor.

GEFS Ensembles show bullseye of severe risk in the region for Monday.

Once that goes through, a series of shortwaves may keep some to few scattered showers/storms bubbling at times Tuesday-Wednesday (with highs in the 80s & lows in the 60s).

Thursday looks great with 78-83 with lows 51-56, followed by 81-85 Friday with increasing clouds as warm front approaches.

Storms seem possible next weekend at times as complexes ride along expanding hot upper ridge from Texas.  Locally-heavy rainfall of +2" in places is possible here Saturday & Sunday with isolated severe risk Saturday giving way to potential more widespread severe risk Sunday.

It will turn muggy with highs in the 80s, then 80s to around 90.

The trend is to engulf the area with the hot upper ridge for a period in the late August time frame. 

After potentiall a couple of "Ridge Riders" with severe risk, a late-season 90s stretch is possible.  Given wetter soils by that time, heat indices may go way up, exceeding 100.  Nights look muggy to oppressive with lows in the 70s.

Exact to-the-days timing of this is unclear, but there continues to be a clear signature of this occurring.

The trend is then to period of storminess with much cooler weather near/after Labor Day period.


Hot with upper ridge in late August (temperature anomalies below):

Then it turns cooler.

It is certainly a wetter regime, then it shuts off with hot upper ridge before turning wetter again as we transition from the end of August to the Labor Day period.

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Cooler & less humid!
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