August 7, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

A look toward rainfall potential.....

Posted: Aug 7, 2019 5:07 PM
Updated: Aug 7, 2019 6:33 PM

For parts of the viewing area, 7 of the past 8 mornings have had lows in the 50s!  This has been nice, even with the days heating up!

This morning lows dropped to 55-63 with patchy fog.

The first 7 days of August have featured mean temperatures below normal by up to two degrees.

Rainfall has been below normal for the start of August with only two days seeing measurable rainfall anywhere in the viewing area.

Storms in Wisconsin will move southeastward & weaken with time this evening-tonight.  These are being triggered by upper trough & surface cold front.

What is left of these will pass mainly north & northeast of the viewing area. 

A few showers & storms have the potential to skim by the viewing area (mainly northeast) late tonight-early Thursday morning.

Lows tonight will drop to 65-69.

Some scattered hit or miss storms are possible tomorrow afternoon-evening with coverage around 35-40% with otherwise overall partly cloudy skies.

An isolated embedded severe storm or two is possible with a wind & hail threat.

Highs will run 87-91 with heat indices peaking at 92-96 with southwest, then west to northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Friday looks good with low humidity, partly cloudy skies & highs 80-85 after cool morning at 54-59.

Saturday looks partly cloudy with low humidity & highs 83-87 after morning lows at 53-57.

A few isolated storms are possible late Sunday with highs 87-90 with heat indices 90-94 after morning lows of 59-64.

A couple to several rounds of showers & storms are possible Monday-Tuesday of next week with muggy 80s.

A few more scattered showers & storms are possible Wednesday-Thursday of next week with highs 80-84 & lows 59-66.

Some severe weather is possible next week, particularly on Tuesday.

This parameter takes into account the instability & speed to directional shear to produce this composite below.  Colors show the risk.  Yellows, oranges to reds would indicated higher severe risk.

In viewing the parameters of various models, the trend is for SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK situation.

Much could change, we will monitor.

This is promising!  Trends are for 1-2.5" rainfall totals area-wide Sunday night-early Wednesday.

Now to early next week shows the corridor of heavy rainfall setting up southwest of our area.  This band of heavier rainfall looked to first set up over our area in early August, but has shown a tendency to sink southwestward some.

Heavier rainfall axis should shift northward early to mid next week & continue to as late as August 20.

Rainfall will run slightly above normal here, it appears:

There is still a sign of late month heat with above normal temperatures dominating with dryness.

Warmer than normal late August:

At the end of the heat, there is a sign of heavier rainfall with storms, followed by cool-down by Labor Day.

Above normal rainfall end of August to early September:

West Lafayette
Few Clouds
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Hi: 84° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 82°
Kokomo
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Hi: 81° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 82°
Rensselaer
Clear
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Hi: 80° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 80°
Fowler
Clear
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Hi: 80° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 80°
Williamsport
Scattered Clouds
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Hi: 81° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 82°
Crawfordsville
Broken Clouds
78° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 79°
Frankfort
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Hi: 81° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 80°
Delphi
Broken Clouds
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Hi: 82° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 81°
Monticello
Broken Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 81°
Logansport
Overcast
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Hi: 82° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 81°
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