August 6, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Turning hotter & more humid with the risk of storms.

Posted: Aug 6, 2020 2:26 PM
Updated: Aug 6, 2020 10:53 PM

Lows this morning dropped to 50-56.

Today will mark the 4th day with temperature below normal, a first since early- to mid-May (May 8-13).

Highs today reached 75-81.

Every month since March has featured below normal rainfall & the June-July period averaged out to the hottest since 2012.

WLFI ob site daily records:

May 2020:

June 2020:

July 2020:

August 2020 (so far):

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Tonight's lows will run 51-58 with patchy shallow fog, especially in low areas & areas around water.

It will get gradually warmer over the next few days, but the much higher humidity should not arrive until mid to late Saturday afternoon with a dew point surge from the 50s to 60 to then 68-72.

This will put heat indices into the 90s later Saturday & near 100 Sunday.

Multiple rounds of showers & storms are likely next week with MARGINAL RISK parameters up to the IN/IL line Sunday evening & then MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters Monday &/or Tuesday & MARGINAL RISK parameters Wednesday.

Cold front should sink southward some with time, allowing for brief spurt of cooler, less humid weather before the heat is turned back up in latter August as we dry out (unless a tropical system impacts the area & the Atlantic to Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico should really RAMP UP with activity in the coming few weeks!)

Latter August features a hot, hot weather pattern, especially for the Great Lakes, Midwest, New England & eastern Canada (where the greatest temperature anomalies have been this summer).  This & tropical flow via surface Bermuda high will result in prolonged periods of high humidity with high heat indicees with the already hot temperatures.

At this point, it appears that late August will be a battle between drier upper ridge & the active tropics.  The active tropics show up well with very wet weather pattern over the south as underbelly of upper ridge pulls systems & moisture westward & northwestward.

Here, we could go either way, depending on tropical tracks despite overall dry, hot upper ridge tending to dominate.

Early September is still trending warmer than normal.

Early September looks drier than normal unless a tropical system(s) track(s) farther north & impacts our area. 

There could very well be a strip of above normal raifnall that develop from Louisiana to far southwestern Indiana to Kentucky, given current projected pattern & tropical activity.

Mid-September will begin to turn a bit cooler than normal.

It appears that an upper trough may swing through surface Canadian high move into the area, resulting in the cooler conditions.  This will also result in drier than normal conditions & September is already usually one of the drier months of the year.

September-October-November 2020 overall looks like this temperature wise (above normal):

As for Winter 2020-21 (December-January-February), the far Northern Rockies & Northern Plains may have a rougher winter.  We continue to trend warmer than normal. 

Core of the warmth for winter should be in the Southern Rockies, Southern Plains & parts of the Southeast.

In Spring 2021, it is much the same pattern with bitter cold & snowy weather in the Northern Rockies & Plains & impressive to record warmth in the Southern Plains & Southeast.

In-between will be an active storm track that may give us the most active spring severe weather-wise (March-April-May) since 2011.

Developing drought should occur Plains to Southeast with a bit above normal rainfall here in the Fall (mainly in November).

Winter looks wetter than normal here & drier in the Plains & Southeast.

Spring 2021 looks wet & stormy here.

The wetness in the Southeast is largely tied to part of March, then it dries.  Ours is rather evenly distributed March to May, it appears currently.

Drought will be prevalent from California to the Southern Plains & parts of the Southeast (though some relief of the drought will occur with period of above normal rainfall with violent severe weather in March).

October & right to May looks drier than normal for large chunk of California to the Southeast, however.

Drought & wildfires should ramp up in Florida in May & wildfire season should start earlier in California.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will continue to have a wet spring after a very wet winter & fall with historic high-elevation snow pack in Washington, Oregion, Idaho & Montana with high avalanche risk in spring.

This all fits the trend of a traditional moderate to strong La Nina developing.

Analogs show temperature & precipitation anomalies associated with stronger La Ninas in the bottom row of images of the Lower 48:

45

West Lafayette
Few Clouds
56° wxIcon
Hi: 64° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 56°
Kokomo
Broken Clouds
58° wxIcon
Hi: 61° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 58°
Rensselaer
Scattered Clouds
55° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 55°
Fowler
Scattered Clouds
55° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 55°
Williamsport
Broken Clouds
58° wxIcon
Hi: 61° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 58°
Crawfordsville
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 63° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 59°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
60° wxIcon
Hi: 62° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 60°
Delphi
Broken Clouds
57° wxIcon
Hi: 61° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 57°
Monticello
Broken Clouds
57° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 57°
Logansport
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 61° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 59°
A Cool Start to October.
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