August 16, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest weather forecast update.

Posted: Aug 16, 2019 1:23 PM
Updated: Aug 16, 2019 2:01 PM

Every mesoscale model last night indicated some scattered rainfall around the entire viewing area this morning to midday with MCV to our south & area of moisture & higher dew point advection coming into area with even some diffuse gravity waves coming through (from the towering complex of storms in Missouri last night).

We have only seen a few showers along I-74 & southward & rainfall around & north of Chicago in a band.  This surprises me given some of the triggers.

Culprit?  It could be a feedback of dry soils over part of the region with dew points still 58-65 around the area, rather than shooting up quickly to 68-72 as expected.

This may be just enough to halt much rainfall development.  It is a the theory after forecasting 40% rainfall coverage for 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. period.

We have the clouds though & they are duplicatus & castellanus clouds, showing that there is elevated instability over the area, but a chunk of the low levels are dry.

The higher dew points over the wet soils in central Illinois to Missouri of 68-72 are slow to advect in, but are on their way.

Regardless, the Storm Prediction Center has us in MARGINAL RISK for severe weather late afternoon-evening & into the overnight.

A few storms are possible later today & into tonight.  Coverage will peak around 45% overnight.

A couple of isolated severe storms are possible. 

Main threats are wind/hail.

It will turn muggy with lows 67-71.

Showers/storms are possible tomorrow morning to early afternoon Saturday.

Note the well-defined MCV or pivoting comma-shaped disturbance moving through area.

Data suggests showers/storms in the morning to midday may begin to weaken & decay.

However, a bit of sun near the core of that MCV may ignite some new storms in the afternoon in a small area of enhanced lifts & shear all within that MCV.

Isolated severe storm or two is possible whether it be initially in the morning or with potential renewed development in the afternoon.

We will monitor this.  It could also turn out to be a situation where it rains & storms in the morning to midday, then everything fires east of us with the MCV, too & we are dry the rest of the day.

Highs will be in the muggy 80s (isolated 90 possible) with south to southwest winds at 15-25 mph.

New storms are possible Saturday night to Sunday morning before they weaken & collapse as strong low-level jet weakens & veers.

Isolated severe storm or two is possible.

Lows will run in the muggy upper 60s to 70.

Much of Sunday will turn dry with lingering debri cloudiness from the storms.  It will be muggy with dew points in the 70s, highs in the 80s (isolated 90 possible) & south to southwest winds at 15-25 mph.

It does appear that a few storms may pop in the evening & into the early overnight with MCV as debri cloudiness thins before sunset.

If they do, the risk of an isolated severe storm will be there.

Off & on storms with many dry hours in-between are possible Monday through next Sunday with MCSs, decaying MCSs, some storms firing on MCVs & outflow boundaries from MCSs.

Isolated to some scattered severe weather cannot be ruled out at times, though the better wind fields & shear for widespread severe weather will exist well northwest & north of our area.

Highs will run 88-94 with heat indices 96-105 & lows near 70 to 72 with south to southwest winds daily.

Big pattern change will come on Labor Day weekend as much cooler, less humid air arrives.

Total rainfall for the next two weeks could run 2.50-5.00" over the area. 

Labor Day weekend looks good right now after storms that Friday.  Saturday-Monday looks cooler, much less humid & highs in the 70s with lows near 50!

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