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August 11, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update

Severe weather risk & potential late-season heat wave down the road.

Posted: Aug 11, 2019 4:21 PM
Updated: Aug 11, 2019 4:24 PM

The past two mornings have been in the 50s once again.

The first 10 days of August have run below normal, in terms of the mean temperature.

The first 10 days have been very wet well west & southwest & also northwest of our area, but very dry here.

Some received rainfall on Thursday of last week.  Three storms looked briefly (third storm looked severe longer than the others) severe on radar:  southwest of Attica, east of Crawfordsville & near Ladoga.

The storm southwest of Attica looked like it may have produced brief 1-1.50" hail, but only a report of 0.25" hail has been received with the wind.  The east of Crawfordsville storm showed evidence of brief 1" hail, while the Ladoga storm showed 60 mph wind core with pea hail.

These are damage pics from the storm southwest of Attica near Portland Arch from Sharon Mead Crain from the severe gusts:

A few showers/storms are riding along warm front/dew point front through eastern Illinois.  I few showers are approaching or skimming our western counties now.

A few spotty hit-or-miss showers/storms are possible here tonight to Monday morning.

A break should then ensue with south-southwest winds at 15-30 mph, highs 87-91, dew points 72-75 & heat indices of 96-101.

Severe risk still on tap for Monday late afternoon-evening.

Entire area is under SLIGHT RISK with ENHANCED RISK right up to the Warren & Benton county lines from Illinois.  Potential is there for expansion of ENHANCED RISK eastward.

It looks like a line of severe storms with damaging straight-line winds as the main threat.  Some embedded smaller-scale bows in the line may have enhanced severe gusts & a few LEWPs or nodes in the line may support a brief, weak tornado or two.

Timing would be generally 5-10 p.m., the way it looks right now for the viewing area.

Locally-heavy rainfall is likely with the storms.  Quick torrential rainfall may result in some areas seeing a sudden +1.75" of rain.  This may result in street flooding, but soils are quite dry for most of the area, so any ponding on soils would be short-lived.

A second cold front, along with couple of shortwaves pivoting through from the northwest, should result in a few showers & storms Tuesday & Wednesday with 30% coverage.  Highs will run in the 80s & it should turn slightly less humid.

It looks pleasant Wednesday night to Thursday night with lows in the 50s & highs 78-82.

Friday looks warmer at around 84, but warm front should pass Saturday morning, followed by 92 Saturday with a heat index near 100, then round of severe storms Sunday with 90s & heat indices to 105.

Any cool-down looks brief after that with potential of brief late-season heat wave in late August with 90s with heat indices in the 100s.

After storms & severe risk, we should cool nicely near the Labor Day period.

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