Highs today reached 82-87 with dew points dropping into the 50s to lower 60s as the surface front sunk a bit farther southward.
Increasing clouds & a few spotty showers/t'showers (reaching 30% coverage) are possible overnight to early Wednesday morning as surface low rides front southwest of our area.
Some smoke aloft returns Wednesday, but much thicker smoke should arrive later Thursday & last into Friday.
Even though it will be a rather refreshing northeast wind Wednesday-Thursday, some surface smoke will mix down from the Minnesota & Ontario fires, resulting in some haze & some decreasing air quality.
Wednesday looks nice with skies becoming mostly sunny & dew points dropping to the 40s & 50s. It will be a breezy to wind day from the northeast at 15-30 mph. Highs of 77-82 are expected.
Patchy fog is likely Thursday morning with light to calm wind with lows 50-56. Highs on Thursday should reach 77-82 with mostly sunny skies & dew points in the comfy 40s to 50s.
Skies will turn partly cloudy with high & mid clouds Friday. Winds will go east to southeast at 5-10 mph with highs 80-85 after 52-58 in the morning.
A few showers/storms are possible Saturday morning (lows 62-66) through afternoon before exiting by 8 p.m. Saturday evening. Coverage will run 30% with sun/clouds & southwest winds 10-20 mph.
Highs of 82-86 are likely with higher dew points of 66-70 in the humid to muggy range.
Sunday features west wind 10-15 mph with highs 82-87 with an isolated shower/t'shower possible from the cumulus clouds bubbling up over the area. Dew points will be running in the 60s, so it will be rather humid.
Labor Day itself looks partly cloudy with highs 83-89 & humid dew points of 66-71 with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph.
Shower/storm coverage doesn't necessarily look great Tuesday late, but 100 mph upper jet streak will pivot through the Great Lakes, enhances our wind fields & shear at all levels. Instability is not especially great, but the dynamics support SLIGHT RISK for severe weather for wind, hail in our area.
After that, we turn a bit cooler before we warm right back up above normal.
A few storms are possible around September 14 as strong cold front comes through.
Storm coverage only looks to run 30-35%, but any storm that develops could pose severe threat given strong dynamics. Wind fields look strong throughout the troposphere.
Although instability doesn't look great, Effective Bulk Shear values support wind & hail risk.
Highs of 80s to 90 with dew points in the 60s will drop to lows in the 40s following the front.
Lows around September 15-17 (42-48 across our viewing area):
Temperatures should skyrocket above to well-above normal at the end of September to the first week of October for another surge of Summer!
Trends support a brief cooler snap toward mid-October, but the overall regime is above normal temperatures through mid-October.
Rainfall is overall below normal now to mid-October. The only place in the country is is trending above normal is south Texas, Florida & up the East Coast due to likelihood of tropical activity in those areas now to mid-October.
For your overall Fall-Winter-Spring 2020-21 outlook: