Any severe risk will stay southwest, south & southeast of the area today, south of the cold front.
Here, an isolated shower or two is possible, mainly this evening & in the southern half (15-20%). Humidity will be dropping from north to south through the day with northeast wind.
Highs will run in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
With clouds/sun, a few isolated showers are possible Saturday (25%) with highs in the 70s to 80 after lows of 54-61 north to south tonight.
Winds will be from the northeast at 5-13 mph, as we will be north of the cold frontal boundary.
Front will begin to lift back northward as a warm front Sunday. After morning lows of 57-64, highs will run 76-84 with a few spotty showers/storms popping (30%).
Labor Day looks good with mostly sunny skies. It will be warm & a bit humid with highs of 83-87 with southeast wind at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday looks very warm to hot & humid with highs 87-90 after morning lows of 64-68. Skies look mostly sunny with strong south-southwest winds at 20-30 mph. Heat indices will peak at 90-93.
With lows of only 69-72 Tuesday night, some showers & storms are possible late, lasting to Wednesday morning.
SPC has the main corridor of severe weather risk early next week northwest of our area.
We will tend to get the leftovers Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning.
We will monitor, nonetheless.
It is this surface cold front & upper trough & the strong Canadian surface high behind it that will tend to pull Hurricane Dorian northeastward after making a Florida landfall as a Category 4 storm.
How far north its rain wind get will be determined by how quickly the upper trough & front move in the eastern U.S.
There looks to be significant impacts to Florida, southeastern Georgia & parts of the Carolinas. Whether that gets to Virginia or the Mid-Atlantic or part of the Northeast remains to be seen.
A bad scenario would be the eye just riding the east Florida, Georgia & Carolina coasts. This would keep the storm over warm water & keep it at a Category 3 or 4, but still be raking land areas.
Such a track would be devastating to the coasts from Florida to the Carolinas.
NHC's current thinking is that it has the highest current probability to make a landfall as a major hurricane early Tuesday morning near Jupiter, Florida, or between Port St. Lucie & West Palm Beach. However, note that it is a pretty wide cone of probability in their forecast.
It then highs the highest potential to track just east of Orland & then toward Jacksonville.
New NHC forests will be out later today.
Clearing, cooler & less humid weather will come in by Wednesday late morning-afternoon with highs only 75-81 with north winds at 15-25 mph.
Thursday looks good with partly cloudy skies & highs 72-78 & morning lows of 49-55.
Friday, Saturday & Sunday morning lows may drop to 46-51 with daily highs of 70 to the 70s.
Next potential of any amount of rainfall (after Wednesday AM) would tend to be Sunday, September 8.
Temperatures look below normal from this stretch to the mid-point of September.
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