SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

August 30, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Turning warmer & more humid with some more showers & storms ahead. Also, a real surge of fall coming soon! We also dig into the rest of Fall & the Winter to Spring 2020-21 outlook update!

Posted: Aug 30, 2020 4:15 PM
Updated: Aug 30, 2020 11:11 PM

Lows this morning dropped to 52-56 with patchy fog & mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Highs today reached 75-81 with partly cloudy skies with a largely east wind.

Partly cloudy skies tonight will give way to mostly sunny skies by tomorrow morning.  Lows tonight will drop to 54-59 with an east wind becoming east-southeast at 5-10 mph.

Mostly sunny skies will give way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon with warmer highs of 82-87.  Although the humidity will gradually increase, it will still be decent with a lack of a heat index deviating outside of the actual air temperature.  Southeast winds will turn more to the south with time & decrease to 4-8 mph.

A few spotty showers & t'showers (30%) are possible tomorrow night increasing clouds, a southeast to south wind & lows in the 60s.

So................

Severe weather will be west & southwest of area tomorrow as severe storm clusters ridge near warm frontal zone.

Then, a few showers & t'showers pass Monday night to early Tuesday as front that moves northward tries to sink back southeastward.

Meanwhile, a couple of surface low waves will be developing on the front in the Southern Plains.

Tuesday looks partly cloudy & humid with highs 84-88 with dew points moving up to around 70, leading to heat indices of 89-94.  Winds be southerly at 5-10 mph early, then 13-24 mph by afternoon.

Late in the day to evening, scattered showers & storms are possible as a broken line or band of storms develops in central & south-central Illinois & moves east-northeastward.

Deeper instability & bulk shear supports some organized storms with risk of isolated severe gusts & large hail.

A MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is up for the entire viewing area.

This occurs as one of three surface waves rides up the front.

Second wave bring some scattered PM showers/storms Wednesday with warm, humid conditions & south-southwest winds.

MARGINAL RISK of severe weather may occur for all or part of the viewing area. 

Cold front will pass Thursday with some scattered storms, then perhaps a broken line of storms with MARGINAL RISK potential.

We cool off at the end of next week, then warm up & turn humid again with some storms & severe weather risk.

Much cooler weather will follow in a couple of two to three successive waves.

Below normal temperatures with crisp, nippy nights dominate in mid-September.

Frost is possible over the Northern Plains with a freeze possible over far northern Minnesota to central Ontario to get Fall color underway.

Meanwhile, extreme heat & highly-volatile, dangerous wildfire situation sets up in the Far West with strong Santa Ana & Diablo Winds (Santa Ana-type winds in northern California).

Temperatures begin to warm back to overall above normal levels in late September & above normal temperature pattern tends to dominate the early half of October.

Much of the now to early half of October period features below normal rainfall.  Pattern change to cooler, wetter weather tends to settle in after the mid-point of October.

November looks warmer than normal.  I do see the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies & all of western southwestern Canada quite a bit colder than normal with unusually heavy snows & bitter mid winter-type cold. 

I do think November will end up wetter than normal based on current analysis.

Overall, Winter 2020-21 continues to trend like this with bitter cold & heavy snows confined to the Northwest U.S., Northern Rockies & Northern Plains to Northern Great Lakes.

Meanwhile, the Southern Plains & South to Ohio Valley & Mid-Atlantic look overall quite mild this winter.

We look warmer than normal.

There is an increased risk of severe weather & heavy rainfall in the Ohio Valley & Midwest this winter as strong mid & upper jet fueled by the temperature contrast make for big powerhouse storm systems.

An unusually warm Gulf will also fuel storms & a lot of rainfall in our area with increased risk of some flooding.

MJO, PNA, NAO, AO, PDO & the strengthening traditional La Nina (La Nina Modoki would feature more of the bitter cold farther southeastward into our area) all point to this pattern.

Precipitation looks above normal here, but snowfall looks below normal.  However, snowfall could really add up to very impressive levels in the Northern Plains & parts of the Northern Rockies to western Great Lakes with above to well-above normal snowfall possible.

Overall Fall-Winter pattern:

Spring 2021 features a similar pattern; cold & late, late Spring Northern U.S., early Spring across Southwest, Southern Plains & South.

Temperatures will average above normal here.

Improvement in the drought in the South may occur, while we remain wet & stormy with predicted delays in planting across the Corn Belt.

Overall Spring 2021:

Lafayette
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 25°
Kokomo
Clear
23° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 15°
Rensselaer
Clear
23° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 23°
Lafayette
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 25°
Danville
Clear
27° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 20°
Frankfort
Clear
27° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 19°
Frankfort
Clear
27° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 19°
Monticello
Clear
26° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 19°
Monticello
Clear
26° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 19°
Logansport
Clear
25° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 25°
Dry, mild conditions continue
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