August 29, 2019, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

What to expect now to October.

Posted: Aug 29, 2019 9:26 PM
Updated: Aug 29, 2019 11:33 PM

After lows of 51-58 this morning, highs today reached 78-87 with gusty southwest winds of peaks gusts of to 22-32 mph over the viewing area.

Warnings are on-going for storms in Michigan & Missouri to Kansas.  Here, we just have clouds.

Tremendous rising motion with complexes of severe storms will occur tonight-tomorrow AM over Kansas & Missouri, while severe storms in Michigan to northeastern Indiana & northwestern Ohio fade.

Here, a few spotty showers & storms are possible with around 30% coverage.  There is a low risk of an isolated severe storm as lift will be focused southwest & northeast of our area with lack of good moisture convergence with sinking air in our area.

Window is narrow of this development with potential now (10 p.m. to 2 a.m.).

Highs will run in the upper 70s to lower 80s tomorrow with clouds & some sun with wind becoming north to northeast at 5-15 mph.

A couple isolated showers are possible in the south (20%).

A few showers are possible for part of tomorrow night, mainly in the south half (30%) with lows 55 north to 62 in the south & around 58 in Greater Lafayette.

As for Saturday, looks like an east-northeast wind at 8-16 mph with clouds & sun & a few spotty showers (30%) & highs in the mid to upper 70s with.

Lows will drop into the 50s Saturday night, followed by 77-80 Sunday with lows Sunday night in the 50s.

Our cold front & upper trough mid- to late-next week will pull Dorian northeast from Florida to the Carolinas to Virginia & then either along the Northeast Coast or out to sea.  That front & trough will bring some showers/storms to our area after a quick heat-up to 85-90 by Tuesday with increasing humidity & southwest winds 15-25 mph (after 83-87 Monday with still pretty low humidity).

It is looking less likely that the storm will make a second landfall on the Florida Panhandle.  It could rake the East Coast pretty good though with, wind, rain, some tornadoes (southeast Virginia & southward) & heavy rainfall.

It looks like a landfall as a Category 4 hurricane (per the National Hurricane Center) near Melbourne, Florida with a track then right over central Florida to over Jacksonville.

System making landfall in south Texas or northern Mexico as just a low pressure or a tropical depression, tropical storm or subtropical storm.  Regardless of what it will be, it will bring heavy rainfall & gusts 40-50 mph there.

Much cooler weather still looks to follow that trough & front with lows dropping into the 40s with highs in the 70-75 range.

Note the early frosts coming into the Dakotas & Montana September 7-9.  32-35 lows are possible.  35-40 is possible in part of Nebraska!

The cool will depart & surge of warmth should arrive mid-September with strong southwest winds.  Note the active tropics with potential tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic/Caribbean again & a Pacific hurricane near Baja California.

There is a trend for multiple rounds of showers & storms during this time with humid to muggy weather with a couple of upper lows tracking through the Upper Midwest with multiple disturbances along an approaching cold front (with tropical feed from the Pacific) will result in the development of periodic rainfall here.

There is the risk of a day or two of at least isolated severe storms.

Late September should then go back to normal to slight-below temperatures overall.

Early October shows a tendency of normal to slightly-below normal temperatures overall.

October temperatures look a bit below normal overall when all daily mean temperatures are averaged for the month.

The only time of September that looks wetter than normal is mid-month, but it will likely be enough to push our monthly totals for a good chunk of the area above normal.

Precipitation looks above normal for the month of October.

Latest analog data suggests a near-normal first 32-degree date (first freeze) at West Lafayette of October 10. 

However, analog suggests an earlier-than-normal killing freeze of 28 or less.  Normal is October 24.  Average of analog for West Lafayette suggests October 17.

For the entire viewing area as a whole, the first 32 & first 28 average around 4-7 days earlier than normal per analog.

We will monitor & wait & see, though.

Normal first 32:

Normal first 28:

West Lafayette
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 83°
Kokomo
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74° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 74°
Rensselaer
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77° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 79°
Fowler
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77° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 79°
Williamsport
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Hi: 83° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 76°
Crawfordsville
Clear
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Hi: 82° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Frankfort
Clear
74° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 74°
Delphi
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 80°
Monticello
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 80°
Logansport
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 75°
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